Biden's wife, Jill, made the same assurance to her husband if he and Obama, his running mate, won the election.
Jill Biden had taped pictures of different dogs on the back of the seat in front of Biden on his campaign plane to inspire the candidate as he crisscrossed the country in the final sprint to election day, according to published reports during the campaign.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
We also know that the incipiency of bankruptcy tends to focus the mind and produce real offers. Why don't we tell the current Big Three that $25 billion in capital is available—but only to two of them? The surviving two will be those that submit the best, and final, binding bids, supported by all the necessary constituencies: boards, managers, suppliers, vendors, creditors, and the UAW.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
McInturff, McCain's pollster, told a story.: "The point was, we do the surge, John's been for it from like, 2004,45 and 6, we are the leading critic of the Bush administration, and then we get to January of '07, and then, guess what, the Bush administration ...adopts the surge, we go on TV in January on Meet the Press, and I said 'we have to say, over and over and over again, here's where I've been for years, and the president's behind me... and John was very, very tempered in a way that really affected our numbers with the base."
"What really happened," McInturff said, "was that John McCain really became President Bush's spokesperson on Iraq."
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
In that melee, I saw a guy waiting around who had no cellphone. Without thinking, I handed him my iPhone and told him to get calling.
I completely lost track of him over the next hour and a half, which started to stress me out.
I eventually did find him and he returned my phone intact. (And yes, I did check to see how many calls he made. 64 calls in 2 hours. Man, the Obama campaign is good.)
Then, about two hours later, after McCain conceded and Obama was about to give his speech, I got a call from a strange number--and I picked up.
The woman's voice on the other end of the line said: "Hello, California?"
"This is Iowa. We want to thank you for everything you guys did for us!"
The floor cheered.
Monday, November 03, 2008
You've seen this story before. Democrats, poised for victory in the White House, get it stolen away at the last minute. Maybe it's because of faulty voting machines, citizens stricken from the voting rolls, dirty tricks, judicial fiat, or maybe we just get out-hustled at the last minute. Whatever the case, you wake up Wednesday morning devastated and wondering how this could come to pass.
And now this year is no different. You're looking at those critical battleground state polls and seeing tightening across the board. Those people who were undecided just a week ago now seem to be flocking to John McCain, and the Republicans are guaranteeing victory. After the last eight years, you cannot understand why.
The country's character is about to be tested, and you harbor dark thoughts about the secret feelings that live deep inside America's psyche.
You are beside yourself with anxiety--and don't know what to do.
Here is the only prescription for your ailment:
Get involved. Come to our phonebank and be inspired by the hundreds of other people who care enough to call voters across the country urging them to vote and to make the right decision.
Instead of sitting helplessly watching MSNBC, do something. Make a difference.
Click here to sign up to come TODAY.
Click here to sign up to come on ELECTION DAY.
After eight years, it is almost "Morning in America"...again. You look at the television and see tens of thousands of Democratic voters in Atlanta, Georgia willing to stand in line for eight hours to vote early for Barack Obama. You're looking at those critical national polls and seeing widening across the board. The independents and moderate Republicans are flocking to Barack Obama. After the last eight years, you understand why.
You see Democrats united as they have never been before. You see prominent Republicans endorsing Barack and Joe. You start hearing terms like "filibuster-proof majority," "landslide" and "mandate"--and you think this could happen. You're seeing polls with Barack tied or ahead in states like North Carolina and Indiana---and Georgia and North Dakota!
For you, this is not about getting 270 electoral votes--this is about getting 370. About crushing the soul of the party who has steered America on the wrong course. Years like "1932" and "1980" come to mind, where the entire political map was redrawn for decades.
You don't just want to win. You want to win big.
You want to run up the score.
And most of all, you cannot wait to celebrate the biggest transformation of American politics in your lifetime.
You are beside yourself with excitement--and don't know what to do.
Come celebrate with us. Come to our phonebank and begin the party early. Enjoy meeting fellow Obama supporters and share your stories and enthusiasm and be a part of history.
Click here to sign up to come TODAY.
Click here to sign up to come on ELECTION DAY.
We cannot do this without you. The entire Obama campaign is premised on two things: a once-in-a-lifetime candidate, and the support of energized volunteers who believe that we can make a difference.
Let me know if you have any questions -- I hope to see all of you there.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
-Barack Obama, October 28th, 2008.
Many of you have been asking how you can help the most on Election Day.
Here is the answer.
Next Tuesday, we are going to be running one of the biggest, most powerful Get Out The Vote (GOTV) Phonebanks in the entire country. California is going to make the vast majority of GOTV calls for the entire Obama Campaign on election day.
We have a soundstage at Culver Studios that will be able to seat 200 people.
Starting at 6 AM, we are going to start calling the East Coast. Then, hour by hour, we are going to work our way across the country with states selected by the Obama campaign based on the exit polling they are receiving on Election Day in real time.
We will be calling the most important, highest leverage voters in the country -- the voters that we have to turn out in the states that we have to win. Quite simply, there is nothing you can do to make a bigger difference on Election Day.
Here's what you need to do:
1. Sign up for a shift by clicking here.
We really need you to officially sign up, because the campaign wants to know how many callers we are going to have.
2. If you can, take November 4th off---if you can't take the whole day, please come for a couple of hours before work, during lunch, or after work.
3. Bring your friends.
4. Come to The Megabank!
Culver Studios – Stage 2
9336 West Washington Boulevard
Culver City, CA 90232
5. Please forward this to all of your Obama supporting friends in Los Angeles. In order to make this work, we need hundreds of callers even for an hour or two.
6. If you can't make it, you can help by donating food and drinks for our hungry and thirsty callers! (and if you are coming, please feel free to bring snacks or food, potluck style too.)
Click here for more information.
I hope to see you there.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin's bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. "Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012," says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. "The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He's in charge on November 5th."
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Abraham Lincoln, 1860:
Things will go on very much as they have hitherto—except that we shall have honesty and manliness instead of meanness and corruption in the Executive departments, and a decent regard for the opinions of mankind in the tone and talk of the Government on the subject of Slavery.
No on Prop 8
Apple is publicly opposing Proposition 8 and making a donation of $100,000 to the No on 8 campaign. Apple was among the first California companies to offer equal rights and benefits to our employees’ same-sex partners, and we strongly believe that a person’s fundamental rights — including the right to marry — should not be affected by their sexual orientation. Apple views this as a civil rights issue, rather than just a political issue, and is therefore speaking out publicly against Proposition 8.
It seems to be me that this trickle of GOP endorsements is being as effectively stage managed as the the stream of Democratic endorsements in the primaries.
Powell, of course, is by far the biggest, but the less prominent Republicans seem to be getting more and more prominent by the day.
A few days ago, it was a Wisconsin state senator.
Now, Republican former governors William Weld and Arne Carlson both endorsed Obama.
If I had to make a prediction, I think that the prominence of the Republicans coming out for Obama are going to get bigger and bigger.
Culminating with election eve endorsements from a pair of sitting Republican Senators in a very competitive state and district perhaps?
I also wouldn't be surprised about endorsements from Ross Perot and possibly Bloomberg in the next few days either.
Slightly more obscure to the layperson, but symbolically powerful. Legal scholar Charles Fried just announced that he's voting for Obama. Besides being Reagan's Solicitor General, Fried was (until this morning) one of John McCain's legal advisors!
Thursday, October 23, 2008
We have the tape of a 911 call made by John McCain's brother earlier this week.John McCain's response: "Say it ain't so, Joe."
He called the police emergency line because he was angry he was stuck in traffic.
The 911 call came into the City of Alexandria on Oct. 21st That's creating some buzz because it appears to come from Joe McCain, John McCain's brother.
Operator: 911 state your emergency
Caller: It's not an emergency but do you know why on one side at the damn drawbridge of 95traffic is stopped for 15 minutes and yet traffic's coming the other way?
Operator: Sir, are you calling 911 to complain about traffic? (pause)
Caller: "(Expletive) you." (caller hangs up)
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
In Gallup's latest poll of Presidential preferences around the world, the only European country that McCain leads in is his campaign's favorite little breakaway republic that could, Georgia: 23-15.
For the rest of the world, Obama leads comfortably by a nearly 4-1 margin.
Meanwhile, in American Georgia, McCain's lead seems to have slipped to about five points.
Also, early voting numbers in Georgia appear to be hugely favoring Obama.
Monday, October 20, 2008
McCain probably should "do a google" and find out who he is.
(His campaign knows, and is pissed:
According to a well-placed source, the McCain folks are absolutely livid.)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
- Obama came across as calm and collected.
- McCain was disdainful, aggressive and petulant.
- McCain started off strong, but ended up getting flustered when his attacks weren't landing. He petered out as the debate wore on.
- The post-debate pundit spin was that McCain won...
- ...which was immediately disproven by the across the board sweep of all of the focus groups and snap polls that showed Obama wiped McCain out.
Obama definitely won the expectations game when it came to the debates. For whatever reason, it seemed to be a universally accepted fact that Obama was not a great debater.
However, one fact got lost in murky past of the brief Republican primary season: John McCain is a horrible at debating. All of the same traits that he evinces now were on display back then as well: his choppy style, his peevishly aggressive demeanor and his lack of familiarity or understanding of the economy.
Lucky for John McCain, he seemed to go up against the only person who was worse at debating than he was: Mitt Romney. That, coupled with the McCain-Mike Huckabee double teaming pretty much guaranteed that Romney was considered the loser of most of the Republican debates. But let's be honest, the Republican crop of candidates this year was pretty weak stuff.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
I want McCain to lose, but let me offer some free advice:
That may have been an intriguing tactic six months ago. And probably a much better one at the RNC in September. But now, such a move would backfire worse than suspending his campaign again.
Every time people looked at McCain they would think one thing: Sarah Palin 2012.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Biden was campaigning in Ohio, but had West Virginia on his mind late this afternoon, making a bold promise to win a state that has gone Republican in the past two elections.
“Which way is West-By-God-Virginia?” Biden asked the crowd Ohio University Eastern Campus, about 10 miles west of that state's border with Ohio. “I want to send a message to West Virginia -- we’re going to win in West Virginia! … We’re going to shock the living devil out of y’all!”
They offer charts comparing the feature lists of similarly priced Windows and Mac notebooks and make numerous accusations of an "Apple Tax." The email is interesting: nothing they say is incorrect, but none of it is new. Most importantly, all of it misses the point completely.Seriously. Talking points??
Hmm, maybe after this campaign is over, Steve Schmidt can get a job after all...
Wait a second:
(Left to right: Steve Schmidt, Steve Ballmer, artists' renditions)
Monday, October 13, 2008
“When Barack Obama is president we’re not gonna wait for our luck to change,” he said. “We’re gonna change our luck. We’re gonna change this country. In the neighborhood I come from, you make your own luck.”
"I'm not really into it."
On the other hand, Nate Silver is thrilled:
Is a walk as good as a hit?
Meanwhile, Dean Smith endorses Obama (for real):
Linnea and I respect all that Senator McCain has done for our country. However, we feel strongly that it is Barack Obama who offers the real leadership our nation needs to tap its potential as a land of opportunity -- even as we face difficult times at home and abroad. Senator Obama is a patriotic American, a committed Christian, a good family man, and a man who shares the bedrock values that most North Carolinians have in common: fairness, hard work, respect for others, and personal responsibility.
*** Money to burn? This past weekend, your First Read team had the luxury of watching some TV in the DC area (Northern Virginia). While enjoying college football games on Saturday, the Sunday morning news shows, NFL games, and 60 Minutes, we probably viewed 30-40 Obama TV ads. And get this -- we didn’t see a single McCain advertisement
Unless Chuck Todd is a die hard Notre Dame fan and really wanted to see them lose to #22 North Carolina, outside of possibly watching "Meet The Press," apparently none of the shows he watches over the weekend are on NBC...
Cue ten million jokes...now.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Sarah Palin is now out for herself. The next three and a half weeks should be fascinating.
From The Times of London:
With his electoral prospects fading by the day, Senator John McCain has fallen out with his vice-presidential running mate about the direction of his White House campaign.
“Sarah Palin is no fool. She sees the same thing and wants to salvage what she can. She is positioning herself for the future. Her best days could be in front of her. She wants to look as though she was the fighter, the person with the spunk who was out there taking it to the Democrats.”
In a new article in Newsweek, the author Holly Bailey claims that:
The man in charge of John McCain's day-to-day presidential campaign is tired of reporters saying he's Rove's "protégé"—the implication being that he is willing to do anything to win.
The article goes on to detail how "pained" Schmidt is this campaign has turned out this way--neglecting, of course, of the single-minded way that the McCain campaign, under Schmidt's direction, has injected toxic negativity at every turn.
The article also makes curious mention of one of Schmidt's prior jobs:
After Bush won in '04, Schmidt took a job at the White House working for Dick Cheney. The vice president had the worst persona in politics—his popularity was in the low 20s—and Schmidt was given the unenviable task of giving the dour, secretive vice president a personality makeover.
Hmm, a campaign consultant whose job was to make over the image of a violently unpopular Republican political figure. (A job he failed to do, by the way.)
Say... you don't suppose that Schmidt, with his client John McCain highly favored to lose--and lose big--isn't possibly trying to pull the same PR shenanigans with the press for himself, do you?
Exit Turd Blossom 2.0?
Enter the kinder, gentler Schmidt whose feelings get hurt when someone even mentions Rove in his presence?
Privately, Schmidt's friends say he has expressed worry about how he will be viewed after the campaign. "He does not desire to go through life with the tag of Karl Rove disciple attached to him," says one friend who asked not to be named talking about private conversations. "He has a life to go back to that has nothing to do with politics … But he also wants to win."
Aww, poor baby.
Maybe next time, Schmidty will realize that actions have consequences.
Hillary Clinton also planned return visits to Ohio and Florida in the next few days and has scheduled trips to Omaha, Neb., and Minnesota.Obama is serious about winning Nebraska-02 if he's sending Hillary there. She also just spent Friday in West Virginia, which according to recent polls may have suddenly come into play, as well as Arkansas, which is probably a longer shot.
The ultimate scenario for Obama is 375 EVs + Georgia (15), West Virginia (5), Nebraska-02 (1), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).
402: that has to be the ultimate ceiling...right?
Saturday, October 11, 2008
As a public service, I'll try and dust off my two decade-old mad Latin skills and translate:
(With all due apologies to Mr. Rheinschmidt...)
Manes Julii Caesaris paucis diebus aderant — “O, most bloody sight!” — cum Ioannes McCainus, mavericus et veteranus captivusque Belli Francoindosinini, et Sara Palina, barracuda borealis, qui sneerare amant Baracum Obamam causa oratorii, pillorant ut demagogi veri, Africanum-Americanum senatorem Terrae Lincolni, ad Republicanas rallias.
The spirts of the dead Julius Caesar are present -- "oh, most bloody sight!" with John McCain, maverick and prisoner of the war of French Indo-China and Sarah Palin, northern barracuda, who love to sneer on account of Barack Obama's speeches, pillorying and demogoging the African American Senator from the Land of Lincoln at Republican rallies.
Rabidi subcanes candidati, pretendant “no orator as Brutis is,” ut “stir men’s blood” et disturbant mentes populi ad “a sudden flood of mutiny,” ut Wilhelmus Shakespearus scripsit.
The rabid less-than-dogs of candidates pretend they are "no orator as Brutus is", as they "stir men's blood" and disturb the minds of the people to a "sudden flood of mutiny" as William Shakespeare wrote.
Cum Quirites Americani ad rallias Republicanas audiunt nomen Baraci Husseini Obamae, clamant “Mortem!” “Amator terroris!” “Socialiste!” “Bomba Obamam!” “Obama est Arabus!” “Caput excidi!” tempus sit rabble-rouseribus desistere “Smear Talk Express,” ut Stephanus Colbertus dixit. Obama demonatus est tamquam Musulmanus-Manchurianus candidatus — civis “collo-cerviciliaris” ad ralliam Floridianam Palinae exhabet mascum Obamae ut Luciferis.
When the screaming Americans at the Republican rallies hear the name "Barack Hussein Obama", they exclaim "Death!," "Lover of terorists!," "Socialist!," "Bomb Obama!," "Obama is an Arab!," "Cut off his head!" the time has come as Stephen Colbert says, to stop "the Smear Talk Express." Obama is demonized just as if he was a Muslim Manchurian candidate -- a citizen "stag's neck(?)" exhorts to Palin's Florida rally that Obama is the Devil.
Obama non queretur high-tech lynching. Sed secreto-serventes agentes nervosissmi sunt.
Obama did not ask for a high-tech lynching. But Secret Service agents are extremely nervous.
Vix quisque audivit nomen “Palinae” ante lunibus paucis. Surgivit ex suo tanning bed ad silvas in Terram Eskimorum, rogans quis sit traitorosus, ominosus, scurrilosus, periculosus amator LXs terroris criminalisque Chicagoani? Tu betchus!
Scarcely any person heard the name "Palin" prior to a few moons (ago). Emerging from her tanning bed to the forests in Eskimo-land, now she is asking everyone who is the most traitorous, most ominous, most scurrilous, most dangerous lover of 60's terrorists and criminals of Chicago? You betcha!
“Caeca ambitio Obamana,” novum rumorem Palina McCainusque dixit. “Cum utilis, Obama laborat cum amatore terroris Wilhelmo Ayro. Cum putatus, perjuravit.” McCainianus bossus maximus Francus Keatinx vocat Obamam, “plebeium,” et ut iuvenum snifferendum cocaini minimi (“a little blow.”)
"From blind ambition comes Obama," Palin and McCain say a new rumor. "For an advantage, Obama worked with the lover of terrorists, William Ayres. With a pruner(?), he lies." McCain's big leader Francis Keating said Obama was "a plebe" and, as a youth he must have sniffed a little cocaine.
Cum Primus Dudus, spousus Palinanus, culpari attemptaret “Centurionem-Gate,” judices Terrae Santae Elvorumque castigat gubernatricem Palinam de abusu auctoritatis per familiam revengendum.
While the First Dude, the husband of Palin, attempted to be blamed for "Centurion-gate", the judges of the land of Santa's Elves chastened the lady-Governor Palin concerning the abuse of authority for the purpose of familial revenge.
Tamen Sara et Ioannes bury Obama, not praise him. Maverici, ut capiunt auxilium de friga-domina, hench-femina, Cynthia McCaina Birrabaronessa, (quae culpat Obamam periculandi suum filum in Babylonia), brazen-iter distractant mentes populares de minimissimis IV 0 I K.ibus, deminutione “Motorum Omnium,” et Depressione Magna II.0. Omnes de Georgio Busio Secundo colossale goofballo. “V” (because there’s no W. in Latin) etiam duxit per disastrum ad gymnasium.
Notwithstanding Sarah and John bury Obama not praise him. The Maverices along with the their chief aide, the frost-lady, henchwoman Cindy McCain, beer-baroness (who blamed Obama for putting her own son in maximum danger in Babylon) brazenly distract the minds of the people from their decimated 401ks, the shrinking "General Motors" and the Great Depression 2.0. This is all from "W", George Bush the second, the colossal goofball certainly is leading through disaster to the gym.
Gubernatrix (prope Russia) Palina, spectans candidaciam MMXII, post multam educationem cum Kissingro et post multam parodiam de Sabbatis Nocte Vivo atque de Tina Feia, ferociter vituperat Obamam, ut supralupocidit (aerial shooting of wolves) in Hyperborea.
The lady-Governor (lying next to Russia) Palin, looking to be a candidate in 2012, after much learning with Kissinger and much parody from Saturday Night Live and Tina Fey, will insult Obama arrogantly, in the manner of shooting wolves from the air, North of Thrace.
Vilmingtoni, in Ohionem, McCain’s Mean Girl (Ferox Puella) defendit se gladiatricem politicam esse: “Pauci dicant, O Jupiter, te negativam esse. Non, negativa non sum, sed verissima.” Talk about lipsticka in porcam! Quasi Leeus Atwater de oppugnatione Busii Primi ad Dukakem: “non negativus, sed comparativus.”
In Wilmington, Ohio, McCain's mean girl defended herself being a warrior-politician-lady, "O Jupiter, some people say that this is negative. No. It is not negative, but the highest truth." Talk about lipstick on a pig! Just as Lee Atwater (said) about George Bush the First's assault to Dukakis: "it's not a negative, but a comparison."
Now that Sarah Palin has been found to have abused her powers, violated state ethics, and lied about it, I did a little digging and found an interesting historical footnote.
The McCain/Palin ticket is the first in American history in which both candidates were found to have violated ethics standards before a national election.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Well, it turns out that John McCain actually was a condescending jackass:
How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating “You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this.”
Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis. In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
All of the Kerry States (252) plus:
Iowa (7) & New Mexico (5)--all but locked up.
Virginia (13)--which will take him over 270.
After that, I think it would be a clean sweep of the following swing states, from biggest margin to smallest:
Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Florida (27) & Ohio (20).
The following three are legitimate polling toss-ups, but I have to think that the superiority of the Obama ground game will be determinative here:
North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11).
This is probably Obama's ceiling--and it is legitimately a landslide. To get beyond this, there will truly have to be an unprecedented turn-out for new voters, young voters, and African Americans. Bad news for your 401k, the Dow would probably have to drop another 1,000 points or so, too--Obama would have to increase his national polling average by another 4-5 points or so.
If you want to start to really get greedy, the next state that Obama could get would probably be Georgia (15). Early polling in Georgia has shown that 9% of the state has voted, and that they favor Obama 64-35. Now there is no way that that is going to last, but it does indicate that the Obama campaign is outhustling the McCain campaign in getting their voters to the polls early. A good sign.
Beyond that, the next most likely state to fall is strangely West Virginia (5)--a state that gave Obama less than 30% of the vote in the primaries. One less than reputable poll gives Obama an 8 point advantage here.
After that, the only states I think Obama could win would be Montana (3) and North Dakota (3). Pre-Sarah Palin, I think Obama could have won both (along with Alaska), but that seems very remote at this point.
But, if Obama supporters stay focused and hungry for the next four weeks, and Republicans get increasingly depressed about the election and stay home, we could be in for some very, very, pretty numbers.
"I have never seen a political ad I liked," Heckler said from his Belltown office. "And I've seen very few all of the way through because I usually turn them off."
About 33 percent of independents said the "Tina Fey effect" is hurting the McCain-Palin ticket, compared with 9 percent who said it was helpful, a Fox 5/The Washington Times/Rasmussen Reports survey says. The figures were nearly identical among independents in the survey.
Tina Fey 2, Republicans 0.
Are the Republicans fighting back by trying to make Sarah Palin look less like Tina Fey?
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
In light of the endorsement from Chuck Hagel's wife today, the question has been raised about Chuck Hagel's rumored endorsement (and Colin Powell's). Clearly Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district electoral vote is in play--witness Sarah Palin playing defense (and then lying about it) on Sunday.
But the one constant in the Obama camp is that they have been masters of timing their endorsements perfectly: Ted Kennedy, Bill Richardson, John Edwards.
Chuck Hagel endorsing Obama will be a big deal--media-wise. My guess is that the Obama camp is saving that card for if and when they need it. (It would be pretty effective for Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel to endorse Obama after a Bin Laden videotape emerged, for instance.)
Monday, October 06, 2008
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Where Ferrell took Bush's folksy, mentally deficient "charm" and turned it into a likable positive, Fey is doing exactly the same thing to Palin, but turning it into a devastating negative.
Turnabout is fair play.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Friday, October 03, 2008
Judging from last night, Queen Latifah may have been a better choice to moderate the real thing.
Something tells me Sweet Johnny Mac should ask his good friend Rudy Giuliani why Mason might not be the best surrogate on this issue:
September 28, 1989:
Rudolph W. Giuliani said yesterday that the comedian Jackie Mason would no longer have a role in his mayoral campaign, after a newspaper quoted Mr. Mason as making racially charged remarks about blacks and Jews.
''There is a sick Jewish problem of voting for a black man no matter how unfit he is for the job,'' Mr. Mason said. ''All you have to do is to be black and don't curse the Jews directly and the Jew will vote for a black in a second. Jews are sick with complexes.''
Was Michael Richards just not available?
In other news, Jackie Mason is still alive?!
Obama Adds Field Office In Nebraska
Some evidence that the Obama campaign is heavily targeting the state's second congressional district: they've just opened another field office in Omaha.
It just reminded me: where is Chuck Hagel's endorsement?
You have to think that would play insanely well in Nebraska's 2nd.
Much was made of Obama's weakness in the primaries with "hardly working, yellow, Animated-Americans" who broke for Hillary Clinton decisively in each state that Springfield is rumored to be in.
Judging from this, Obama has clearly made the sale.
After getting caught speaking her mind when she thought no one was looking, on the same day she espoused the opposite position in her Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan has been in full damage control mode, trying to get back in favor with her conservative puppet-masters.
Today's column is a pretty pathetic continuation of this rehabilitation:
She killed. She had him at "Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe?" She was the star. He was the second male lead, the good-natured best friend of the leading man. She was not petrified but peppy.
Three months ago, I thought Peggy Noonan could have earned a spot in the American Political Pantheon by crossing party lines and crafting Barack Obama's version of "Morning in America."
Now she is continues to reveal herself to be nothing more than another partisan hack. One who hypocritically attacks Democrats for being elitists through a op-ed column humbly titled "Declarations."
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Guess what? They're probably right.
Biden is screwed. If he's too mean, he's a jerk. If he's too nice, he's condescending.
If he ignores her attacks, he cedes her 90 minutes to run up his negatives unchecked.
If he knows too much, he's a know-it-all.
He's going to gaffe. Everyone knows that.
He's probably going to try to cop a feel--and that's just how he'll treat Gwen Ifill.
It. Does. Not. Matter.
Sure Sarah can staunch the bleeding. She may even get an hour and a half of folksy charm masking snotty attacks.
But at the end of the day, Sarah Palin is not going to win this election for John McCain. Maybe she will acquit herself and her future political reputation. Maybe McCain will even bounce in the polls.
But if any of you want to give me even money that Palin is going to somehow remain gaffe-free for the next 33 days, I will gladly eat your money.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
"I've got a pretty long track record covering politics and news," [Ifill] said. "so I'm not particularly worried that one-day blog chatter is going to destroy my reputation. The proof is in the pudding. They can watch the debate tomorrow night and make their own decisions about whether or not I've done my job."Hopefully, she has the integrity to live up to this.
Failing that, hopefully she looks at the polls and realizes there's no profit in kowtowing to right-wing bullies.
Things got kicked off this morning by Quinnipiac which showed the following:
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39
Staggering numbers to be sure. The McCain campaign panicked about these numbers and attempted to laugh them off.
"These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2 percent, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country?"
But then, CNN/Time Magazine laid down the smackdown:
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44
These are staggering, staggering numbers. Assuming Obama wins all of John Kerry's states (and really at this point, the only question mark is New Hampshire's 4 Electoral Votes) and Iowa and New Mexico, which everyone assumes he wins, as well as Colorado where he is leading, we're talking about 349 Electoral Votes...
...and we're not even factoring Indiana and North Carolina where the polls are deadlocked, if not showing a slight Obama lead.
The most devastating factor of all is, as far as I can tell, these polls are now talking about likely voters--not registered voters. Likely Voters have usually voted in at least the two last elections, which means that they are disproportionately oversampling older voters, and undersampling younger voters and new registrants.
And I'll give you two guesses on who those groups favor.
What this means is: there is a reasonable assumption that as amazing as these poll numbers are today, they could very well be understating Obama's actual support in these states.
I told you this was worth posting.
I would argue it's a losing strategy, but it certainly would create the dominant story coming out of the debate--and it would be a story that wasn't about Palin's complete lack of knowledge about, well, anything.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
In short, she will become the Geraldine Ferraro of the Republican Party.
Which, I guess, means that someday she will piss off Republican voters by NOT being racist.
How about the 12th?
How about during college(s)?
How about two years ago?
Bonus fun fact: Sarah Palin has two less alma maters than John McCain has houses.
In an interview here after Sunday’s broadcast, Mr. Brokaw said that over the summer he had “advocated” within the executive suite of NBC News to modify the anchor duties of the MSNBC hosts Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews on election night and on nights when there were presidential debates.
Mr. Brokaw said he had also conducted some shuttle diplomacy in recent weeks between NBC and the McCain campaign.
Monday, September 29, 2008
The Mars Phoenix lander just discovered that it actually snows on Mars!
Icy snow falls from high in Mars's atmosphere and may even reach the planet's surface, scientists working with NASA's Phoenix lander reported yesterday.
"Nothing like this view has ever been seen on Mars," said Jim Whiteway of York University in Toronto, lead scientist for the Canadian-supplied Meteorological Station on Phoenix. "We'll be looking for signs that the snow may even reach the ground."
How any of this could possibly be construed as a positive for either McCain or the Republican Party is beyond me (and I say this as a life-long Republican)? In fact, it would seem much more likely to me that the House Republicans just handed the election to Obama on a silver platter. Blaming the vote on Pelosi’s antagonistic remarks seems especially dumb, and I expect to see Barney Frank-type comments all over the MSM tonight and throughout the weekCouldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
McCain suspends his campaign.
Goes to Washington to wrangle the House Republicans.
Restarts his campaign.
Gets blown out at the debate.
Goes back to Washington to wrangle House Republicans.
Claims credit for putting the bill back together...
And then fails to deliver House Republicans.
John McCain is the leader of his party--how, exactly?
- She is a damn good journalist.
- She works for PBS and is, I imagine, far less ratings obsessed than an anchor from a broadcast network. Result: less focus on silly tabloid stories and gossip items. A conversation about pigs, lipstick, Track and babies instead of the Fed Bailout, Iraq, Afghanistan and things like, you know, actual policy.
- She is a contender for the "Meet The Press" job. With David Gregory (mercifully) fading, and no other option clearly manifesting itself (scratch Olbermann and Matthews), one has to think that Ifill's chances are as good as they have ever been. Consider this to be her ultimate audition. Conduct a debate worthy of NBC's Sunday and she makes the strongest case she can. Conduct a debate worthy of Access Hollywood--not so much.
- With the sexism card in the air, Sarah Palin in a defensive post-Couric crouch and an expectation that Biden will somehow make an ass of himself towards Palin, the fact that Ifill is not a white man will undercut the "old-boy network Biden and the debate moderator ganged up on poor Sarah" narrative that could easily have emerged from the debate. Biden can still get himself in trouble--but no one likes watching two against one, so he may have dodged a bullet here.
There is a reason why Jim Lehrer was roundly praised by debate watchers: no stupid, silly season questions. His employment at PBS was key reason why.
It should be noted that #3 does contradict #2 slightly--obviously the higher ups are going to be looking at how big of a draw Ifil's is. My guess is not that big--but Sarah Palin sure will be.
Ha. The McCain camp is already trying to pressure Ifill:
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
This, however, is a devastating result for McCain for two reasons:
- McCain is behind and needed a game-changer.
- This debate will be the most watched, and was on McCain's presumed turf: foreign policy. Consequently, it was his best chance for a big win. I also think, after three weeks of devastating media coverage, there was an opportunity for a narrative shift, which does not seemed to have happened.
On the non-substantive issues, I think McCain lost as well. His churlish, angry behavior will be mercilessly mocked on Saturday Night Live tomorrow, and the CW will be set from this debate. As some have noted, McCain's sneer = Gore's sighs. Obama seemed calm, cool and collected.
The snap polls from the networks seem to indicate a universal opinion that Obama won this.
Personally, I think Obama won this narrowly. But he won it on the road, and now the series shifts back to Barack Field.
For the record, this debate series most closely resembles the old 5-game MLB playoffs. The worse team got the first two games at home, but the better team would get game 3, and then 4 and 5 if necessary.
McCain lost his home field early, and now cannot regain the advantage. He could always win on the road, but that is going to be much harder for him.
John McCain's reversal of his pledge not to attend tonight's debate unless there was an agreement on a Wall Street bailout illustrates the dangers of chasing news cycles.
This is a campaign flying by the seat of its pants, chasing news cycles without a real plan once it has caught them.
The Obama campaign gets up every day and asks themselves how they can make the case for change vs more of the same, just as they did yesterday, and they will do tomorrow.
The McCain campaign wakes up and figures out how to try to win the day.
Its the difference between strategy and tactics, between a message and a war room, and it is among the reasons why Barack Obama, and not John McCain, is the clear favorite to be our next President.
Find and replace "John McCain" with "Hillary Clinton" and Wolfson is blasting the exact tactics that Wolfson himself was employing four months ago.
Did you ever think that the
is similar to
Palin pulled media attention completely away from McCain...
Did you see the COMPLETE COMFORT in McCain's body language in DC, yesterday, with Lieberman by his side?
Enter Mike Huckabee:
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Thursday that Sen. John McCain made a “huge mistake” by even discussing canceling the presidential debate with Sen. Barack Obama.
Huckabee said he still backs McCain’s candidacy, but said the Arizona senator should not have put his campaign on hold to deal with the financial crisis on Wall Street. He said a president must be prepared to “deal with the unexpected.”
“You can’t just say, ‘World stop for a moment. I’m going to cancel everything,”‘ Huckabee said.
And then the coup de grace:
“I don’t have any immediate plans to seek office,” he said.
McCain has brought this on himself.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
One the proposals -- favored by House Republicans -- would relax regulation and temporarily get rid of certain taxes in order to lure private industry into the market for these distressed assets.
Wait a second. John Sidney McCain III, who has been pilloried over the past two weeks for being an architect (or at least an enabler) of the massive deregulation that has gotten us into this mess, and seen his popularity and poll numbers plummet as a result, goes to Washington D.C. "to save the bailout plan" and proposes more deregulation?
The Chewbacca Defense looks like the Allegory of the Cave compared to this insanity.
If John McCain is a Wookie, you must spend $700 billion.
John McCain faced another crisis yesterday--a political one, not the financial emergency he used as an excuse for his rash actions--and once again he overreacted. This is becoming a pattern (as is his "greatest crisis since..." formulation: yesterday, since World War II; previously--on Georgia--since the end of the cold war), and it is not very reassuring behavior in a potential President.
And that raises an interesting question: Why was McCain so quick to pull out of the debate? After all, with the momentum slightly in Obama's direction, he needed a game-changer--and foreign policy is, allegedly, his area of expertise. His peremptory actions yesterday was not the behavior of a confident man. It was the behavior of a man uncertain, despite all the macho bluster, about his chances in the most important theater of battle in any presidential campaign, one where gimmicks, diversions and untruths can be directly countered by his opponent. McCain may clean Obama's clock in the coming debates--but it seems entirely possible that the old fighter jock may be frightened that he's about to ditch another plane.
(CBS won't allow this video to be embedded)
Last night, a furious Letterman may have ended it:
When I was a kid, once every now and then, they had Bugs Bunny specials scheduled for prime time ... I looked forward to these for weeks. But invariably, invariably! -- or so it seemed when I was six years old -- they'd be preempted by Ronald Reagan giving a speech. I was sure what Mr. Reagan was saying was very important ... but I absolutely hated him as a result.
Oddly, I had exactly the same experience, though I remember specifically being incensed that Bugs Bunny was preempted the night that Reagan was shot.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
1. Nate Silver Transparency effect?
2. ABC/Washington Poll effect?
3. McCain's debate gambit judged to be a major blunder?
Some combination of all three?
As Josh Marshall says:
What's changed today in the financial crisis other than John McCain's poll numbers tanking? Isn't this the campaign equivalent of faking an injury when you're down late in the 4th quarter? Note too that McCain was in the midst of debate prep when he made this decision.
This makes McCain more like
Rats. I just remembered that it was actually Joe Nash who used to fake injuries.
Is anyone else having this problem?
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Well, it's a few months late, but I finally found a new metric by which she would have unquestionably won.
On a Monopoly board, the combined value of the states that Hillary won (New York, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana & Pennsylvania) is $1140 -- far dwarfing the $920 value of Obama's holdings (Connecticut, Vermont, Virginia, Illinois & North Carolina).
The general election looks more favorable for Obama who is leading $980 to McCain's $400 with $680 (Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina) too close to call.
However, don't forget to add the cost of Barack Obama's 1 house on Illinois (cost $150) and John McCain's 1 house in Virginia (cost $100) and 7 houses on Boardwalk and Park Place (total cost $1400).
Hillary just held a private conference call with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and dozens of donors to her campaign and to Ohio Dems, urging them to plow funds into the coffers of the Ohio state party so it can help execute the ground game on Barack Obama's behalf, a Hillary aide confirms to me.
Hillary also promised extensive future visits to the state on Obama's behalf. "I will be back campaigning up and down the state to make the case that the failed leadership of the last eight years should not be rewarded with another four," she told the donors.
Except that the McCain staff seemingly lies while doing it.
This election is close, why?
Suffice to say, this has been an incredibly hectic weekend, and I am sure it will grow even more busy as we close out the last 43 days before the election.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Obama should be the next president of the United States because he is the most qualified change agent. Obama is a little young, but also brilliant. If he sometimes seems brainy and professorial, that's OK. We need the leader of the free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results of shooting from the hip.
The Iraq war: Many Americans will cast their vote on this one issue alone. Past performance is the best indicator of future conduct. Obama opposed the war, McCain supported it full-bore. Obama has a plan for moving the troops out; McCain seeks "victory," whatever that actually means. The net effect will be more time and money wasted in a country that did not participate in 9/11.
On numerous other issues, from media consolidation to health care, Obama has the stronger take. He makes up for a thin résumé with integrity, judgment and fresh ideas. Obama can get America moving forward again.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
ATLANTA over Kansas City
BUFFALO over Oakland
CHICAGO over Tampa Bay
TENNESSEE over Houston
MINNESOTA over Carolina
NEW ENGLAND over Miami
NY GIANTS over Cincinnati
WASHINGTON over Arizona
SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit
SEATTLE over St. Louis
DENVER over New Orleans
PHILADELPHIA over Pittsburgh
INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville
BALTIMORE over Cleveland
GREEN BAY over Dallas
SAN DIEGO over NY Jets
This week's suicide pick: New England
Biggest remaining mismatch: St. Louis at New England, week 8
Season to date: 19-13
The SuperSystem -- with no knowledge of anything about football other than last year's records and a painstaking mathematical study of the NFL since 1988 -- made the following predictions for Week 2:
CINCINNATI over Tennessee
GREEN BAY over Detroit
KANSAS CITY over Oakland
NY GIANTS over St. Louis
MINNESOTA over Indianapolis
WASHINGTON over New Orleans
CAROLINA over Chicago
SEATTLE over San Francisco
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo
TAMPA BAY over Atlanta
NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets
ARIZONA over Miami
DENVER over San Diego
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland
DALLAS over Philadelphia
OAKLAND over Denver
This week's suicide pick: Arizona
Biggest remaining mismatch: St. Louis at New England, week 8
Week 1 Perfomance: 9-7
Week 2 Perfomance: 10-6
Season to date: 19-13
These days, he sounds less like his old self than Bob Dole, another senator who ran for president in 1996, sounded in the closing days of his campaign — speaking louder or repeating statements that he thinks might be overlooked.
It makes you almost feel bad for---
- Even after cramming for the test, Palin has no idea about the Bush Doctrine.
- Tina makes moosemeat of Sarah.
- Karl Rove calls McCain out for lying too much.
- Joe Biden gives John McCain a new nickname.
- McCellophane can't get anyone to notice him.
- Palin's numbers go in the toilet.
- McCain decides to go Full Hoover on the day Merril Lynch and Lehman Brothers fail.
- Economic Advisor Holtz-Eakin claims that computer illiterate McCain pulled a MacGyver and invented the BlackBerry.
- Economic Advisor Fiorina opines that neither candidate on her own ticket are qualified to run a company.
- McCain unwittingly resorts to ethnic slurs.
- McCain loses Richard Cohen.
- McCain loses David Brooks.
- McCain loses former biographer Elizabeth Drew.
- Obama gets endorsed by the Republican former Governor of Virginia.
- Obama gets endorsed by the Republican former Mayor of Los Angeles.
- McCain gets battered by the Editorial Boards. And the AP.
- Chuck Hagel goes on record laughing about foreign policy credentials via osmosis.
- Obama raises a record $11 million -- in one night.
- John McCain accidentally declares war on Spain.
- One week ago, John McCain led in the national polls. Now--not so much.
Why, none other than John McCain, of course!