Is America Really Ready...

...for its first Canadian vice-President?

Always Bet On Barack

British bookies don't like Sarah's chances:

Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.

And it's not helping McCain either:

"Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain," said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. "He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned."

Why Sarah Palin Will Survive

As much fun as it is -- at least for us Democrats (and maybe certain Republicans) to watch the slow motion car wreck that is Sarah Palin, the truth of the matter is she is probably going to be fine.

John McCain knows that if he withdraw her from the ticket, his chances of winning go down even further than they are today. So he, and his coterie of advisors are going to double-down, triple-down and quadruple-down on her, even if it causes them to take on increasingly bizarre and tortured defenses of Palin's qualifications. ("She is a whiz at foreign policy because Alaska is our closest border to Russia," "Managing a small town is harder than a big city!" "Sexism, sexism, sexism, sexism!")

At the same time there are four factors right now--three from that mean ol' media--that are helping Palin's case, and are creating a perfect storm for Palin's reintroduction to America.

1. The expectations for Palin's speech could not be lower. Because this rollout has been the Hindenberg of VP introductions, at this point if Sarah Palin comes out and speaks English instead of Inuit, the media (and the audience) will be shocked.
2. The importance of Palin's speech could not be higher--especially for John McCain. With McCain's raison d'etre for running having been extinguished ("Experience!"), there is a growing narrative that his entire candidacy should now be judged on the merits of his most important decision to date: selecting a running mate. His early marks have not been kind. However, if Palin acquits herself and clears the low expectations, McCain is going to start crowing "I Told You So," and the media will have to take it.
3. The media is predisposed to liking her speech. This is a given. For all of the hits that she's taken these past few days, the bottom line is that she is coming across as something of the victim here, and it's John McCain who seems like the jerk who put her in harm's way. Having said that, the media loves a great redemption story, so you can already write the platitudes in advance. (My cliche prediction, Chris Matthews or Pat Buchanan: "Knocked it out the park. Grand slam, home run!")
4. She's probably pretty good at giving a speech. This is her bailiwick. She was a former news anchor for crying out loud.

So let's recap: Diminished expectations, increased importance, fixed judges and in her comfort zone.

I'd take the over.


Nate Silver agrees:

But basically, she shouldn't try and do too much. If she pours the media half a glass, they'll most likely be inclined to call it full.

Maureen Dowd cautions, she's not out of the woods yet:

When you make a gimmicky pick of an unknown, without proper vetting, there’s bound to be a sticky press conference sooner or later. I watched it happen with Ferraro and Quayle, and I watched Mondale and Poppy Bush curdle with embarrassment but plow through.

Palin's Speech

Ambinder twitters:

McCain aide on Palin speech: you will see what John McCain saw in her.

Me:

I guess that means Palin's speech will be only 15 minutes long?

Ambinder:

Ouch!

Shock Therapy

It's never going to come to this, but stories even speculating on how this would go down cannot be a good sign for John McCain.

Here in St. Paul, talk of Palin has dominated the Republican convention—even more so than cable news—and by Monday night discussion among Republican operatives and reporters had turned to whether Palin would survive or become the first running mate since Thomas Eagleton in 1972 to leave a major-party ticket. On Monday, the InTrade futures market opened trading on whether Palin would withdraw before the election.

By the way...

..what kind of mother--knowing that her unmarried, teenaged daughter was pregnant--would then agree to run for Vice President, realizing full well that her daughter would be subject to national media scrutiny over her pregnancy?

Just asking.

The lost Goldie Hawn movie

People have picked up on the idea that Palin's nomination feels like some sort of lost Goldie Hawn movie from the 1980's about a housewife who wins a radio contest and becomes Vice-President of the United States.

Maureen Dowd probably does it better than anyone here.

Dowd's biggest problem is that she seems to secretly want to be Aaron Sorkin--but it works this time.

(Ironically, Aaron Sorkin's biggest problem is that he seems to secretly want to be Maureen Dowd.)