Here's what SNL missed out on:
He gives Darrell Hammond a run for his money too.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama Sees The Future
Obama predicted the McCain campaign tactics of the past few weeks back on July 30th.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
McCain's Final Act of Service to His Country
At least he's taking all sorts of reckless, crazy political acts off the table for generations to come?
Economic Advice
Given today's continued economic cratering, isn't investing in Obama on Intrade or IEM actually a good hedge against further losses?
John McCain is a Class Act
Remember the African-American guy that John McCain seemed to be a condescending jackass towards at the town hall meeting? ("You probably never even heard of Fannie or Freddie before this crisis.")
Well, it turns out that John McCain actually was a condescending jackass:
Well, it turns out that John McCain actually was a condescending jackass:
How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating “You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this.”
Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis. In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Obama's Path To Victory
If the election were held today, I think Obama would win 375 electoral votes:
All of the Kerry States (252) plus:
Iowa (7) & New Mexico (5)--all but locked up.
Virginia (13)--which will take him over 270.
After that, I think it would be a clean sweep of the following swing states, from biggest margin to smallest:
Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Florida (27) & Ohio (20).
The following three are legitimate polling toss-ups, but I have to think that the superiority of the Obama ground game will be determinative here:
North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11).
This is probably Obama's ceiling--and it is legitimately a landslide. To get beyond this, there will truly have to be an unprecedented turn-out for new voters, young voters, and African Americans. Bad news for your 401k, the Dow would probably have to drop another 1,000 points or so, too--Obama would have to increase his national polling average by another 4-5 points or so.
If you want to start to really get greedy, the next state that Obama could get would probably be Georgia (15). Early polling in Georgia has shown that 9% of the state has voted, and that they favor Obama 64-35. Now there is no way that that is going to last, but it does indicate that the Obama campaign is outhustling the McCain campaign in getting their voters to the polls early. A good sign.
Beyond that, the next most likely state to fall is strangely West Virginia (5)--a state that gave Obama less than 30% of the vote in the primaries. One less than reputable poll gives Obama an 8 point advantage here.
After that, the only states I think Obama could win would be Montana (3) and North Dakota (3). Pre-Sarah Palin, I think Obama could have won both (along with Alaska), but that seems very remote at this point.
But, if Obama supporters stay focused and hungry for the next four weeks, and Republicans get increasingly depressed about the election and stay home, we could be in for some very, very, pretty numbers.
All of the Kerry States (252) plus:
Iowa (7) & New Mexico (5)--all but locked up.
Virginia (13)--which will take him over 270.
After that, I think it would be a clean sweep of the following swing states, from biggest margin to smallest:
Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Florida (27) & Ohio (20).
The following three are legitimate polling toss-ups, but I have to think that the superiority of the Obama ground game will be determinative here:
North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11).
This is probably Obama's ceiling--and it is legitimately a landslide. To get beyond this, there will truly have to be an unprecedented turn-out for new voters, young voters, and African Americans. Bad news for your 401k, the Dow would probably have to drop another 1,000 points or so, too--Obama would have to increase his national polling average by another 4-5 points or so.
If you want to start to really get greedy, the next state that Obama could get would probably be Georgia (15). Early polling in Georgia has shown that 9% of the state has voted, and that they favor Obama 64-35. Now there is no way that that is going to last, but it does indicate that the Obama campaign is outhustling the McCain campaign in getting their voters to the polls early. A good sign.
Beyond that, the next most likely state to fall is strangely West Virginia (5)--a state that gave Obama less than 30% of the vote in the primaries. One less than reputable poll gives Obama an 8 point advantage here.
After that, the only states I think Obama could win would be Montana (3) and North Dakota (3). Pre-Sarah Palin, I think Obama could have won both (along with Alaska), but that seems very remote at this point.
But, if Obama supporters stay focused and hungry for the next four weeks, and Republicans get increasingly depressed about the election and stay home, we could be in for some very, very, pretty numbers.
Raaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiineeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrr
The creator of the best television commercials in history (especially if you were a kid growing up in Seattle in the late 70's/early 80's) blasts modern political ads:
"I have never seen a political ad I liked," Heckler said from his Belltown office. "And I've seen very few all of the way through because I usually turn them off."
Tina Fey Saves America
Here's proof:
Tina Fey 2, Republicans 0.
UPDATE:
Are the Republicans fighting back by trying to make Sarah Palin look less like Tina Fey?
About 33 percent of independents said the "Tina Fey effect" is hurting the McCain-Palin ticket, compared with 9 percent who said it was helpful, a Fox 5/The Washington Times/Rasmussen Reports survey says. The figures were nearly identical among independents in the survey.
Tina Fey 2, Republicans 0.
UPDATE:
Are the Republicans fighting back by trying to make Sarah Palin look less like Tina Fey?
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Brokaw as Ifill
Just to make a point, but isn't pretty much every Tom Brokaw book about the noble patriotism of old white guys who were soldiers?
On Endorsements
Do they sway voters? Probably not. But they definitely sway media narratives.
In light of the endorsement from Chuck Hagel's wife today, the question has been raised about Chuck Hagel's rumored endorsement (and Colin Powell's). Clearly Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district electoral vote is in play--witness Sarah Palin playing defense (and then lying about it) on Sunday.
But the one constant in the Obama camp is that they have been masters of timing their endorsements perfectly: Ted Kennedy, Bill Richardson, John Edwards.
Chuck Hagel endorsing Obama will be a big deal--media-wise. My guess is that the Obama camp is saving that card for if and when they need it. (It would be pretty effective for Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel to endorse Obama after a Bin Laden videotape emerged, for instance.)
In light of the endorsement from Chuck Hagel's wife today, the question has been raised about Chuck Hagel's rumored endorsement (and Colin Powell's). Clearly Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district electoral vote is in play--witness Sarah Palin playing defense (and then lying about it) on Sunday.
But the one constant in the Obama camp is that they have been masters of timing their endorsements perfectly: Ted Kennedy, Bill Richardson, John Edwards.
Chuck Hagel endorsing Obama will be a big deal--media-wise. My guess is that the Obama camp is saving that card for if and when they need it. (It would be pretty effective for Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel to endorse Obama after a Bin Laden videotape emerged, for instance.)
Opening the Debate
Will Obama beat McCain to the punch, and offer condolences to Joe and Jill Biden over the passing of Jill's mother, or will McCain try to double down on the Ted Kennedy card?
Monday, October 06, 2008
Bailout Politics
I'm just saying--if John McCain had opposed the bailout bill last week, it had still passed, and the Dow still ended up under 10,000 today, wouldn't he have a much better set of talking points today than warmed over William Ayres smears?
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Thursday's SNL
Given their new penchant for casting cameos as debate moderators (Chris Parnell as Jim Lehrer, Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill), would it be too much to hope for SNL bringing back Dana Carvey as Tom Brokaw?
The Conservation of Comedy
This year, Tina Fey is having precisely an equal and opposite reaction from Will Ferrell in 2000.
Where Ferrell took Bush's folksy, mentally deficient "charm" and turned it into a likable positive, Fey is doing exactly the same thing to Palin, but turning it into a devastating negative.
Turnabout is fair play.
Where Ferrell took Bush's folksy, mentally deficient "charm" and turned it into a likable positive, Fey is doing exactly the same thing to Palin, but turning it into a devastating negative.
Turnabout is fair play.
Jon Meachem Explains It All
A fascinating look inside Palinworld and dangers Sarah Palin's "you betcha" politics pose to the country.
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