Fascinating...

Instead of being John McCain's strongest argument, the McCain campaign now thinks that the surge--specifically Bush's post-2006 election co-option of the strategy--did him in.

Ambinder:

McInturff, McCain's pollster, told a story.: "The point was, we do the surge, John's been for it from like, 2004,45 and 6, we are the leading critic of the Bush administration, and then we get to January of '07, and then, guess what, the Bush administration ...adopts the surge, we go on TV in January on Meet the Press, and I said 'we have to say, over and over and over again, here's where I've been for years, and the president's behind me... and John was very, very tempered in a way that really affected our numbers with the base."

[...]

"What really happened," McInturff said, "was that John McCain really became President Bush's spokesperson on Iraq."

McCain goes full Bush

Brutal. Oof.

McCain Takes 8 Point Lead in the Wrong Georgia

Who says that lobbying doesn't pay?

In Gallup's latest poll of Presidential preferences around the world, the only European country that McCain leads in is his campaign's favorite little breakaway republic that could, Georgia: 23-15.

For the rest of the world, Obama leads comfortably by a nearly 4-1 margin.

Meanwhile, in American Georgia, McCain's lead seems to have slipped to about five points.

Also, early voting numbers in Georgia appear to be hugely favoring Obama.

Even the internets are against him

Eric Schmidt endorses Obama.

McCain probably should "do a google" and find out who he is.

(His campaign knows, and is pissed:

According to a well-placed source, the McCain folks are absolutely livid.

)

A political analogy

For independents (and some Democrats):

McCain 2000 : McCain 2008 :: Raiders of the Lost Ark :: Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

Susan Collins Attacks John McCain

Ouch. Republican Senator Susan Collins slams McCain for his sleazy robo-calls.

Last Night's Debate Reaction

There was absolutely nothing unpredictable about last night's debate. In fact, it followed the essential pattern of every other debate in the General.

1. Obama came across as calm and collected.
2. McCain was disdainful, aggressive and petulant.
3. McCain started off strong, but ended up getting flustered when his attacks weren't landing. He petered out as the debate wore on.
   
4. The post-debate pundit spin was that McCain won...
5. ...which was immediately disproven by the across the board sweep of all of the focus groups and snap polls that showed Obama wiped McCain out.

Interestingly, even the VP debate followed this basic series of events.

Obama definitely won the expectations game when it came to the debates. For whatever reason, it seemed to be a universally accepted fact that Obama was not a great debater.

However, one fact got lost in murky past of the brief Republican primary season: John McCain is a horrible at debating. All of the same traits that he evinces now were on display back then as well: his choppy style, his peevishly aggressive demeanor and his lack of familiarity or understanding of the economy.

Lucky for John McCain, he seemed to go up against the only person who was worse at debating than he was: Mitt Romney. That, coupled with the McCain-Mike Huckabee double teaming pretty much guaranteed that Romney was considered the loser of most of the Republican debates. But let's be honest, the Republican crop of candidates this year was pretty weak stuff.

John McCain Is The Penguin

This is a pretty remarkable find:



For the record, I always thought Bill Gates was the most likely Lakeside alumni to be President, with Jamie Twiss a respectable second.

Who knew it would be Adam West?

The One Term Stunt

Several writers have been speculating that McCain may try to pull some sort of stunt tonight, including, but not limited to announcing a pledge to only serve one term. The rationale behind this is: John McCain will put country first ahead of his own political ambitions.

I want McCain to lose, but let me offer some free advice:

That may have been an intriguing tactic six months ago. And probably a much better one at the RNC in September. But now, such a move would backfire worse than suspending his campaign again.

Every time people looked at McCain they would think one thing: Sarah Palin 2012.

John McCain's Brother Goes Nuts

Wow. This actually includes a script for a commercial.

The commercial stars John McCain's flight jacket.

He makes Billy Carter & Roger Clinton look like Bobby Kennedy.

Senators Who Live In Seven Glass Houses Shouldn't Throw ACORNs

Footage emerges of an ACORN event in 2006...



...starring John McCain.

Ambinder has more:

How McCain can still win

Mark Halperin links to Adam Nagourney's piece on six ways John McCain can still win.

Short version:

Adam Nagourney: "Please still buy our newspaper."

Who is the Advance Wizard Who Came Up With This One?

John McCain, desperate because he is slipping in the South, is making his first campaign stop in North Carolina today. The location of his rally? "Cape Fear Community College."

Cue ten million jokes...now.

McCain and Palin are fighting

This was inevitable. McCain is the last Republican Presidential candidate of the 20th Century. Palin wants to think that she's the first of the 21st. With the race clearly slipping from their grasp, Palin is now throwing John McCain under the bus.

Sarah Palin is now out for herself. The next three and a half weeks should be fascinating.

From The Times of London:

With his electoral prospects fading by the day, Senator John McCain has fallen out with his vice-presidential running mate about the direction of his White House campaign.

[...]

“Sarah Palin is no fool. She sees the same thing and wants to salvage what she can. She is positioning herself for the future. Her best days could be in front of her. She wants to look as though she was the fighter, the person with the spunk who was out there taking it to the Democrats.”

The Historic McCain-Palin Ticket

Not quite the way Gerry Ferraro would have imagined it:

Now that Sarah Palin has been found to have abused her powers, violated state ethics, and lied about it, I did a little digging and found an interesting historical footnote.

The McCain/Palin ticket is the first in American history in which both candidates were found to have violated ethics standards before a national election.

2000, 2008

John McCain was the first guy in the country to hate George W. Bush in 2000, and seemingly the last guy to support his policies in 2008.

It will cost him the Presidency twice.

Obama Sees The Future

Obama predicted the McCain campaign tactics of the past few weeks back on July 30th.

McCain's Final Act of Service to His Country

At least he's taking all sorts of reckless, crazy political acts off the table for generations to come?

John McCain is a Class Act

Remember the African-American guy that John McCain seemed to be a condescending jackass towards at the town hall meeting? ("You probably never even heard of Fannie or Freddie before this crisis.")

Well, it turns out that John McCain actually was a condescending jackass:

How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating “You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this.”

Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis. In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Obama's Path To Victory

If the election were held today, I think Obama would win 375 electoral votes:

All of the Kerry States (252) plus:

Iowa (7) & New Mexico (5)--all but locked up.

Virginia (13)--which will take him over 270.

After that, I think it would be a clean sweep of the following swing states, from biggest margin to smallest:

Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Florida (27) & Ohio (20).

The following three are legitimate polling toss-ups, but I have to think that the superiority of the Obama ground game will be determinative here:

North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11).

This is probably Obama's ceiling--and it is legitimately a landslide. To get beyond this, there will truly have to be an unprecedented turn-out for new voters, young voters, and African Americans. Bad news for your 401k, the Dow would probably have to drop another 1,000 points or so, too--Obama would have to increase his national polling average by another 4-5 points or so.

If you want to start to really get greedy, the next state that Obama could get would probably be Georgia (15). Early polling in Georgia has shown that 9% of the state has voted, and that they favor Obama 64-35. Now there is no way that that is going to last, but it does indicate that the Obama campaign is outhustling the McCain campaign in getting their voters to the polls early. A good sign.

Beyond that, the next most likely state to fall is strangely West Virginia (5)--a state that gave Obama less than 30% of the vote in the primaries. One less than reputable poll gives Obama an 8 point advantage here.

After that, the only states I think Obama could win would be Montana (3) and North Dakota (3). Pre-Sarah Palin, I think Obama could have won both (along with Alaska), but that seems very remote at this point.

But, if Obama supporters stay focused and hungry for the next four weeks, and Republicans get increasingly depressed about the election and stay home, we could be in for some very, very, pretty numbers.