Rick Santorum is Making Sense

Former Senator Man-on-Dog writes:

Obama also faces the reality of needing at least one Republican senator to join him to break filibusters. Many speculate that three moderate Republicans will provide the necessary Senate votes and the imprimatur of bipartisanship.

Still, Obama and the GOP moderates will not produce the kind of post-partisan harmony that Obama promised and the public now expects.

But I believe Obama has an ace in the hole among Senate Republicans. This unlikely ace can deliver not only the GOP moderates needed to break a filibuster, but also the stamp of bipartisanship: the 2008 GOP standard bearer, John McCain.

Santorum's essential point -- as much as it pains him to say it -- is that McCain, in an effort to rebuild his damaged image with the public and, more importantly, the media will now go back to tweaking the conservative GOP leadership who has done him no favors.

I believe that this is essentially correct. Further, I would wager that John McCain will, in the next four years, regain his position as the Democrats' favorite Republican Senator by delivering the dwindling block of Republican moderates and McCain buddies to Obama on critical legislation.

This is why it was smart of Obama to absolve McCain buddy Joe Lieberman of his sins, as well as nominate McCain's chief 2010 rival Janet Napolitano to Obama's cabinet.

For immediate evidence of this theory, look no further back than yesterday, when Lindsay Graham publicly supported Tim Geithner's nomination and, as Politico noted, lended "yet another bipartisan boon for President-elect Barack Obama."

Who Are You?

The Pessimist
You've seen this story before. Democrats, poised for victory in the White House, get it stolen away at the last minute. Maybe it's because of faulty voting machines, citizens stricken from the voting rolls, dirty tricks, judicial fiat, or maybe we just get out-hustled at the last minute. Whatever the case, you wake up Wednesday morning devastated and wondering how this could come to pass.

And now this year is no different. You're looking at those critical battleground state polls and seeing tightening across the board. Those people who were undecided just a week ago now seem to be flocking to John McCain, and the Republicans are guaranteeing victory. After the last eight years, you cannot understand why.

The country's character is about to be tested, and you harbor dark thoughts about the secret feelings that live deep inside America's psyche.

You are beside yourself with anxiety--and don't know what to do.

Here is the only prescription for your ailment:

Get involved. Come to our phonebank and be inspired by the hundreds of other people who care enough to call voters across the country urging them to vote and to make the right decision.

Instead of sitting helplessly watching MSNBC, do something. Make a difference.

Click here to sign up to come TODAY.
Click here to sign up to come on ELECTION DAY.


The Optimist
After eight years, it is almost "Morning in America"...again. You look at the television and see tens of thousands of Democratic voters in Atlanta, Georgia willing to stand in line for eight hours to vote early for Barack Obama. You're looking at those critical national polls and seeing widening across the board. The independents and moderate Republicans are flocking to Barack Obama. After the last eight years, you understand why.

You see Democrats united as they have never been before. You see prominent Republicans endorsing Barack and Joe. You start hearing terms like "filibuster-proof majority," "landslide" and "mandate"--and you think this could happen. You're seeing polls with Barack tied or ahead in states like North Carolina and Indiana---and Georgia and North Dakota!

For you, this is not about getting 270 electoral votes--this is about getting 370. About crushing the soul of the party who has steered America on the wrong course. Years like "1932" and "1980" come to mind, where the entire political map was redrawn for decades.

You don't just want to win. You want to win big.

You want to run up the score.

And most of all, you cannot wait to celebrate the biggest transformation of American politics in your lifetime.

You are beside yourself with excitement--and don't know what to do.

Come celebrate with us. Come to our phonebank and begin the party early. Enjoy meeting fellow Obama supporters and share your stories and enthusiasm and be a part of history.

Click here to sign up to come TODAY.
Click here to sign up to come on ELECTION DAY.



---

We cannot do this without you. The entire Obama campaign is premised on two things: a once-in-a-lifetime candidate, and the support of energized volunteers who believe that we can make a difference.

Let me know if you have any questions -- I hope to see all of you there.

Do it for this little guy

Election Day

"Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does."

-Barack Obama, October 28th, 2008.

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Many of you have been asking how you can help the most on Election Day.

Here is the answer.

Next Tuesday, we are going to be running one of the biggest, most powerful Get Out The Vote (GOTV) Phonebanks in the entire country. California is going to make the vast majority of GOTV calls for the entire Obama Campaign on election day.

We have a soundstage at Culver Studios that will be able to seat 200 people.

Starting at 6 AM, we are going to start calling the East Coast. Then, hour by hour, we are going to work our way across the country with states selected by the Obama campaign based on the exit polling they are receiving on Election Day in real time.

We will be calling the most important, highest leverage voters in the country -- the voters that we have to turn out in the states that we have to win. Quite simply, there is nothing you can do to make a bigger difference on Election Day.


Here's what you need to do:

1. Sign up for a shift by clicking here.

We really need you to officially sign up, because the campaign wants to know how many callers we are going to have.

2. If you can, take November 4th off---if you can't take the whole day, please come for a couple of hours before work, during lunch, or after work.

3. Bring your friends.

4. Come to The Megabank!
Culver Studios – Stage 2
9336 West Washington Boulevard
Culver City, CA 90232

5. Please forward this to all of your Obama supporting friends in Los Angeles. In order to make this work, we need hundreds of callers even for an hour or two.

6. If you can't make it, you can help by donating food and drinks for our hungry and thirsty callers! (and if you are coming, please feel free to bring snacks or food, potluck style too.)

Click here for more information.

I hope to see you there.

Obama's Closer

He's awesome.



7 Days to go.

Republicans Endorsing Obama

Now that Colin Powell has sounded the call, there has seemed to be a constant drip-drip-dripping of moderate (and not-so-moderate) Republicans coming forth to endorse Obama.

It seems to be me that this trickle of GOP endorsements is being as effectively stage managed as the the stream of Democratic endorsements in the primaries.

Powell, of course, is by far the biggest, but the less prominent Republicans seem to be getting more and more prominent by the day.

A few days ago, it was a Wisconsin state senator.

Now, Republican former governors William Weld and Arne Carlson both endorsed Obama.

If I had to make a prediction, I think that the prominence of the Republicans coming out for Obama are going to get bigger and bigger.

Culminating with election eve endorsements from a pair of sitting Republican Senators in a very competitive state and district perhaps?

I also wouldn't be surprised about endorsements from Ross Perot and possibly Bloomberg in the next few days either.

UPDATE:
Slightly more obscure to the layperson, but symbolically powerful. Legal scholar Charles Fried just announced that he's voting for Obama. Besides being Reagan's Solicitor General, Fried was (until this morning) one of John McCain's legal advisors!

Ouch.

Little Opie Cunningham Endorses Obama

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

McCain Takes 8 Point Lead in the Wrong Georgia

Who says that lobbying doesn't pay?

In Gallup's latest poll of Presidential preferences around the world, the only European country that McCain leads in is his campaign's favorite little breakaway republic that could, Georgia: 23-15.

For the rest of the world, Obama leads comfortably by a nearly 4-1 margin.

Meanwhile, in American Georgia, McCain's lead seems to have slipped to about five points.

Also, early voting numbers in Georgia appear to be hugely favoring Obama.

Even the internets are against him

Eric Schmidt endorses Obama.

McCain probably should "do a google" and find out who he is.

(His campaign knows, and is pissed:

According to a well-placed source, the McCain folks are absolutely livid.

)

Colin Powell's Endorsement

Seems to me that Barack Obama just turned in his Commander-in-Chief test and Colin Powell turned out to be his grader.

A+.

"University of Chicago" Democrat

If Obama wins, isn't he basically our first "Moneyball" President?

Last Night's Debate Reaction

There was absolutely nothing unpredictable about last night's debate. In fact, it followed the essential pattern of every other debate in the General.

1. Obama came across as calm and collected.
2. McCain was disdainful, aggressive and petulant.
3. McCain started off strong, but ended up getting flustered when his attacks weren't landing. He petered out as the debate wore on.
   
4. The post-debate pundit spin was that McCain won...
5. ...which was immediately disproven by the across the board sweep of all of the focus groups and snap polls that showed Obama wiped McCain out.

Interestingly, even the VP debate followed this basic series of events.

Obama definitely won the expectations game when it came to the debates. For whatever reason, it seemed to be a universally accepted fact that Obama was not a great debater.

However, one fact got lost in murky past of the brief Republican primary season: John McCain is a horrible at debating. All of the same traits that he evinces now were on display back then as well: his choppy style, his peevishly aggressive demeanor and his lack of familiarity or understanding of the economy.

Lucky for John McCain, he seemed to go up against the only person who was worse at debating than he was: Mitt Romney. That, coupled with the McCain-Mike Huckabee double teaming pretty much guaranteed that Romney was considered the loser of most of the Republican debates. But let's be honest, the Republican crop of candidates this year was pretty weak stuff.

Edgar Martinez Unendorses Obama

Obama on sports:

The DH?

"I'm not really into it."

On the other hand, Nate Silver is thrilled:

Is a walk as good as a hit?

"Yes."

Meanwhile, Dean Smith endorses Obama (for real):

Linnea and I respect all that Senator McCain has done for our country. However, we feel strongly that it is Barack Obama who offers the real leadership our nation needs to tap its potential as a land of opportunity -- even as we face difficult times at home and abroad. Senator Obama is a patriotic American, a committed Christian, a good family man, and a man who shares the bedrock values that most North Carolinians have in common: fairness, hard work, respect for others, and personal responsibility.

Obama's Battlefield Widens

Interesting tidbit from the AP:

Hillary Clinton also planned return visits to Ohio and Florida in the next few days and has scheduled trips to Omaha, Neb., and Minnesota.

Obama is serious about winning Nebraska-02 if he's sending Hillary there. She also just spent Friday in West Virginia, which according to recent polls may have suddenly come into play, as well as Arkansas, which is probably a longer shot.

The ultimate scenario for Obama is 375 EVs + Georgia (15), West Virginia (5), Nebraska-02 (1), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).

402: that has to be the ultimate ceiling...right?

Obama Sees The Future

Obama predicted the McCain campaign tactics of the past few weeks back on July 30th.

Economic Advice

Given today's continued economic cratering, isn't investing in Obama on Intrade or IEM actually a good hedge against further losses?

Obama's Path To Victory

If the election were held today, I think Obama would win 375 electoral votes:

All of the Kerry States (252) plus:

Iowa (7) & New Mexico (5)--all but locked up.

Virginia (13)--which will take him over 270.

After that, I think it would be a clean sweep of the following swing states, from biggest margin to smallest:

Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Florida (27) & Ohio (20).

The following three are legitimate polling toss-ups, but I have to think that the superiority of the Obama ground game will be determinative here:

North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11).

This is probably Obama's ceiling--and it is legitimately a landslide. To get beyond this, there will truly have to be an unprecedented turn-out for new voters, young voters, and African Americans. Bad news for your 401k, the Dow would probably have to drop another 1,000 points or so, too--Obama would have to increase his national polling average by another 4-5 points or so.

If you want to start to really get greedy, the next state that Obama could get would probably be Georgia (15). Early polling in Georgia has shown that 9% of the state has voted, and that they favor Obama 64-35. Now there is no way that that is going to last, but it does indicate that the Obama campaign is outhustling the McCain campaign in getting their voters to the polls early. A good sign.

Beyond that, the next most likely state to fall is strangely West Virginia (5)--a state that gave Obama less than 30% of the vote in the primaries. One less than reputable poll gives Obama an 8 point advantage here.

After that, the only states I think Obama could win would be Montana (3) and North Dakota (3). Pre-Sarah Palin, I think Obama could have won both (along with Alaska), but that seems very remote at this point.

But, if Obama supporters stay focused and hungry for the next four weeks, and Republicans get increasingly depressed about the election and stay home, we could be in for some very, very, pretty numbers.

Opening the Debate

Will Obama beat McCain to the punch, and offer condolences to Joe and Jill Biden over the passing of Jill's mother, or will McCain try to double down on the Ted Kennedy card?

Bailout Politics

I'm just saying--if John McCain had opposed the bailout bill last week, it had still passed, and the Dow still ended up under 10,000 today, wouldn't he have a much better set of talking points today than warmed over William Ayres smears?

The Hagelian Imperative

After reading this tidbit from Marc Ambinder:

Obama Adds Field Office In Nebraska

Some evidence that the Obama campaign is heavily targeting the state's second congressional district: they've just opened another field office in Omaha.

It just reminded me: where is Chuck Hagel's endorsement?

You have to think that would play insanely well in Nebraska's 2nd.