This counts as five, ok..?

Obama's Poll Bonaza

I haven't been posting much polling data here, but today warrants an exception.

Things got kicked off this morning by Quinnipiac which showed the following:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39

Staggering numbers to be sure. The McCain campaign panicked about these numbers and attempted to laugh them off.

"These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2 percent, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country?"

But then, CNN/Time Magazine laid down the smackdown:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

These are staggering, staggering numbers. Assuming Obama wins all of John Kerry's states (and really at this point, the only question mark is New Hampshire's 4 Electoral Votes) and Iowa and New Mexico, which everyone assumes he wins, as well as Colorado where he is leading, we're talking about 349 Electoral Votes...

...and we're not even factoring Indiana and North Carolina where the polls are deadlocked, if not showing a slight Obama lead.

The most devastating factor of all is, as far as I can tell, these polls are now talking about likely voters--not registered voters. Likely Voters have usually voted in at least the two last elections, which means that they are disproportionately oversampling older voters, and undersampling younger voters and new registrants.

And I'll give you two guesses on who those groups favor.

What this means is: there is a reasonable assumption that as amazing as these poll numbers are today, they could very well be understating Obama's actual support in these states.

I told you this was worth posting.

Attacking Ifill

Just a thought: If things are going badly for Palin tomorrow night, do you think she might change tactics (or is it strategies?) and actually attack Ifill herself for being biased? This seems to be Palin's favorite move in her Couric interview.

I would argue it's a losing strategy, but it certainly would create the dominant story coming out of the debate--and it would be a story that wasn't about Palin's complete lack of knowledge about, well, anything.

The Palin Adventure Is Just Beginning

Wow. Just wow.

And even worse stuff coming today...

The future of Sarah Palin

Hopefully, we will never hear from her again after November 5th. Obviously the Republicans will trot her out to fundraise, but she is such a knucklehead even they can't possibly try and position her again for higher office.

In short, she will become the Geraldine Ferraro of the Republican Party.

Which, I guess, means that someday she will piss off Republican voters by NOT being racist.

The Early Political Life of Sarah Palin

In what alternate universe does anyone believe that Sarah Palin knew who Joe Biden even was in the 2nd grade?

How about the 12th?

How about during college(s)?

How about two years ago?

Bonus fun fact: Sarah Palin has two less alma maters than John McCain has houses.

Brokaw Watch

It continues to trend downward:

In an interview here after Sunday’s broadcast, Mr. Brokaw said that over the summer he had “advocated” within the executive suite of NBC News to modify the anchor duties of the MSNBC hosts Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews on election night and on nights when there were presidential debates.

[...]

Mr. Brokaw said he had also conducted some shuttle diplomacy in recent weeks between NBC and the McCain campaign.

The Newest "Real McCain": The Economy

Robert Greenwald deserves a medal

Martian Snow Days

On a crummy economic day, here's something to cheer you up.

The Mars Phoenix lander just discovered that it actually snows on Mars!

Icy snow falls from high in Mars's atmosphere and may even reach the planet's surface, scientists working with NASA's Phoenix lander reported yesterday.

[...]

"Nothing like this view has ever been seen on Mars," said Jim Whiteway of York University in Toronto, lead scientist for the Canadian-supplied Meteorological Station on Phoenix. "We'll be looking for signs that the snow may even reach the ground."

Democrats Are Irrelevant??

Apparently, even thought Barack Obama now leads in practically every single critical swing state, and per Nate Silver and national polling, is the odds on favorite to win the election, according to Mark Halperin not one of the "5 Most Important People In Politics (Who Aren't Running For President" is even a Democrat.

Um, suuuure.

The Bailout and the Election

Even Republican pundits agree. The House Republicans cooked themselves today:

How any of this could possibly be construed as a positive for either McCain or the Republican Party is beyond me (and I say this as a life-long Republican)? In fact, it would seem much more likely to me that the House Republicans just handed the election to Obama on a silver platter. Blaming the vote on Pelosi’s antagonistic remarks seems especially dumb, and I expect to see Barney Frank-type comments all over the MSM tonight and throughout the week

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

McCain needs political Viagra

Paging Bob Dole...

McCain suspends his campaign.
Goes to Washington to wrangle the House Republicans.
Restarts his campaign.
Gets blown out at the debate.
Goes back to Washington to wrangle House Republicans.
Claims credit for putting the bill back together...
And then fails to deliver House Republicans.

John McCain is the leader of his party--how, exactly?

Do the edge pieces first

Who likes Jigsaw puzzles?

Thoughts about the VP Debate

Moderator Gwen Ifill is the key. I think she will work, generally, to the Democrats and Biden's favor, for the following reasons:

1. She is a damn good journalist.
2. She works for PBS and is, I imagine, far less ratings obsessed than an anchor from a broadcast network. Result: less focus on silly tabloid stories and gossip items. A conversation about pigs, lipstick, Track and babies instead of the Fed Bailout, Iraq, Afghanistan and things like, you know, actual policy.
   

There is a reason why Jim Lehrer was roundly praised by debate watchers: no stupid, silly season questions. His employment at PBS was key reason why.

3. She is a contender for the "Meet The Press" job. With David Gregory (mercifully) fading, and no other option clearly manifesting itself (scratch Olbermann and Matthews), one has to think that Ifill's chances are as good as they have ever been. Consider this to be her ultimate audition. Conduct a debate worthy of NBC's Sunday and she makes the strongest case she can. Conduct a debate worthy of Access Hollywood--not so much.

It should be noted that #3 does contradict #2 slightly--obviously the higher ups are going to be looking at how big of a draw Ifil's is. My guess is not that big--but Sarah Palin sure will be.

4. With the sexism card in the air, Sarah Palin in a defensive post-Couric crouch and an expectation that Biden will somehow make an ass of himself towards Palin, the fact that Ifill is not a white man will undercut the "old-boy network Biden and the debate moderator ganged up on poor Sarah" narrative that could easily have emerged from the debate. Biden can still get himself in trouble--but no one likes watching two against one, so he may have dodged a bullet here.

UPDATE:

Ha. The McCain camp is already trying to pressure Ifill:

Proof that Obama Won

Three things to read/watch:

1. Nate Silver:

2. Talking Points Memo:

and then watch this (and remember that this is Fox News.)

3. Video from a Fox News focus group

The Precursor To Intrade

120 years ago.

My Debate Reaction

I think Obama was strong--didn't crush McCain, but came out ahead.

This, however, is a devastating result for McCain for two reasons:

1. McCain is behind and needed a game-changer.
   
2. This debate will be the most watched, and was on McCain's presumed turf: foreign policy. Consequently, it was his best chance for a big win. I also think, after three weeks of devastating media coverage, there was an opportunity for a narrative shift, which does not seemed to have happened.
   

On the non-substantive issues, I think McCain lost as well. His churlish, angry behavior will be mercilessly mocked on Saturday Night Live tomorrow, and the CW will be set from this debate. As some have noted, McCain's sneer = Gore's sighs. Obama seemed calm, cool and collected.

The snap polls from the networks seem to indicate a universal opinion that Obama won this.

Personally, I think Obama won this narrowly. But he won it on the road, and now the series shifts back to Barack Field.

For the record, this debate series most closely resembles the old 5-game MLB playoffs. The worse team got the first two games at home, but the better team would get game 3, and then 4 and 5 if necessary.

McCain lost his home field early, and now cannot regain the advantage. He could always win on the road, but that is going to be much harder for him.

2,000 readers!

2,000 readers, in under a month.

Keep reading and spreading the word!

Wolfson Repudiates Wolfson's Strategy

Is it me, or is this nothing short of amazing coming from former Hillary Clinton communication czar Howard Wolfson:

John McCain's reversal of his pledge not to attend tonight's debate unless there was an agreement on a Wall Street bailout illustrates the dangers of chasing news cycles.

[...]

This is a campaign flying by the seat of its pants, chasing news cycles without a real plan once it has caught them.

The Obama campaign gets up every day and asks themselves how they can make the case for change vs more of the same, just as they did yesterday, and they will do tomorrow.

The McCain campaign wakes up and figures out how to try to win the day.

Its the difference between strategy and tactics, between a message and a war room, and it is among the reasons why Barack Obama, and not John McCain, is the clear favorite to be our next President.

Find and replace "John McCain" with "Hillary Clinton" and Wolfson is blasting the exact tactics that Wolfson himself was employing four months ago.

Princess Palin

A very smart reader writes:

Did you ever think that the

McCain/Palin/Lieberman triad

is similar to

Charles/Diana/Camilla?

Palin pulled media attention completely away from McCain...

Did you see the COMPLETE COMFORT in McCain's body language in DC, yesterday, with Lieberman by his side?

GOP Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost

Remember when I argued that Palin was going to be a disaster because too many forces within the GOP would now be rooting against John McCain?

Enter Mike Huckabee:

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Thursday that Sen. John McCain made a “huge mistake” by even discussing canceling the presidential debate with Sen. Barack Obama.

[...]

Huckabee said he still backs McCain’s candidacy, but said the Arizona senator should not have put his campaign on hold to deal with the financial crisis on Wall Street. He said a president must be prepared to “deal with the unexpected.”

“You can’t just say, ‘World stop for a moment. I’m going to cancel everything,”‘ Huckabee said.

And then the coup de grace:

“I don’t have any immediate plans to seek office,” he said.

Suuuuuuure....

Alia Iacta Est

At this point, with no deal to be struck before the markets open tomorrow morning--and presumably crater, isn't it completely in the Democrats best interests to stonewall the Republicans and force John McCain to either show up in Mississippi, eat crow and lose face, or cede 90 minutes of free media to Barack Obama in front of 40 million people?

McCain has brought this on himself.

Prediction

If McCain signs on to the bailout bill, he's going to start referring to it as a $700 Billion "economic surge."

Forget 3 AM

Would you want Sarah Palin to answer a 3 PM phone call?

Somebody pinch me

Marc Ambinder on what McCain proposed today:

One the proposals -- favored by House Republicans -- would relax regulation and temporarily get rid of certain taxes in order to lure private industry into the market for these distressed assets.

Wait a second. John Sidney McCain III, who has been pilloried over the past two weeks for being an architect (or at least an enabler) of the massive deregulation that has gotten us into this mess, and seen his popularity and poll numbers plummet as a result, goes to Washington D.C. "to save the bailout plan" and proposes more deregulation?

The Chewbacca Defense looks like the Allegory of the Cave compared to this insanity.

If John McCain is a Wookie, you must spend $700 billion.

The Irony of McCain 2008

Has anyone noticed how ironic it is that after basing his entire candidacy on the success of the surge to break the back of the insurgents in Iraq, John McCain is now running his entire campaign essentially as a guerilla insurgency? Shock tactics and stunts to scare the populace.

Weird times.

Baseball

I hope everyone hates baseball as much as I do right now.

If not, read this and at least you will hate baseball players.

A Broken Record

Ok, posting all of the articles and opinion pieces where McCain gets blasted is becoming a bit repetitious. But, I thought this one was particular good:

Joe Klein:

John McCain faced another crisis yesterday--a political one, not the financial emergency he used as an excuse for his rash actions--and once again he overreacted. This is becoming a pattern (as is his "greatest crisis since..." formulation: yesterday, since World War II; previously--on Georgia--since the end of the cold war), and it is not very reassuring behavior in a potential President.

[...]

And that raises an interesting question: Why was McCain so quick to pull out of the debate? After all, with the momentum slightly in Obama's direction, he needed a game-changer--and foreign policy is, allegedly, his area of expertise. His peremptory actions yesterday was not the behavior of a confident man. It was the behavior of a man uncertain, despite all the macho bluster, about his chances in the most important theater of battle in any presidential campaign, one where gimmicks, diversions and untruths can be directly countered by his opponent. McCain may clean Obama's clock in the coming debates--but it seems entirely possible that the old fighter jock may be frightened that he's about to ditch another plane.

McCain's Alpha and Omega is David Letterman

No one probably remembers this, but John McCain actually began his 2008 campaign by announcing on Letterman's show:

(CBS won't allow this video to be embedded)


Last night, a furious Letterman may have ended it:

Darth Vader Tweets

Vader:

Did I call a time out after my stupid son blew up the Death Star? Hell no! I took the boys to Hoth and laid the smack down. Feh.

Reagan and Bugs Bunny

Nate Silver says one of the reasons that he became a Democrat was:

When I was a kid, once every now and then, they had Bugs Bunny specials scheduled for prime time ... I looked forward to these for weeks. But invariably, invariably! -- or so it seemed when I was six years old -- they'd be preempted by Ronald Reagan giving a speech. I was sure what Mr. Reagan was saying was very important ... but I absolutely hated him as a result.

Oddly, I had exactly the same experience, though I remember specifically being incensed that Bugs Bunny was preempted the night that Reagan was shot.

Will McCain "Win The Week"?

We're waiting, Halperin.

Intrade Correction

Seemingly on the order of 8 points (+4 Obama, -4 McCain):

1. Nate Silver Transparency effect?

2. ABC/Washington Poll effect?

3. McCain's debate gambit judged to be a major blunder?

Some combination of all three?

John McCain is like Bush

(warning: may contain obscure 1980's Seattle Seahawks reference.)

As Josh Marshall says:

What's changed today in the financial crisis other than John McCain's poll numbers tanking? Isn't this the campaign equivalent of faking an injury when you're down late in the 4th quarter? Note too that McCain was in the midst of debate prep when he made this decision.

This makes McCain more like Bush than ever before.

Blair Bush.

Rats. I just remembered that it was actually Joe Nash who used to fake injuries.

McCain's Trying to Dodge the Debate

Reminds me of how I would pray for a snow day on the day of the midterm before Christmas break.

Worked once-in the 12th grade, actually.

Talk about quick polls

Survey USA: 1,000 Adults

56%: Debate should be held
30%: Debate should be economy focussed
10%: Debate should be postponed.

Sorry, Johnny.

Thomas Friedman is wrong

We don't need a national "Apollo program" for green energy.

We need a national "Apollo program" for cell phone service that actually works.

Putting Lipstick on McCain

Wait a second.

First, John McCain has $500 shoes.

Then, Cindy McCain has a $25,000 watch.

Next, Cindy has a $300,000 outfit.

And now we find out that John McCain spent $5,000...

...on his own makeup?!

Waaaaaahhh

McCain gets pummeled in the polls, and now he wants to take his ball and go home?

Firefox

I hate to say it, but I am on the verge of dropping Firefox completely and moving to Safari. Pages frequently don't open for me, or take forever to render, but when I open them on Safari they open immediately.

Is anyone else having this problem?

Bush's Eleven

If I was trying to write a script about a bunch of guys trying to heist a trillion dollars, I have a feeling that my plot would be fairly close to what Paulson is proposing.

Campbell Brown Steps Up

Flipping the sexism card on its head.

The History of Vice Presidential Experience

In 12 minutes.



Lawrence Lessig narrates.

Wow. Just wow.

Initially, I thought this woman was a clear Palin supporter, but then she used the word "spectrum" correctly, so no dice.

Do Not Pass Go

Remember during the primaries when various Clinton surrogates, having lost any chance of beating Obama amongst pledged delegates, kept trying to change how the score should be kept: it's delegates! No, it's superdelegates! No, it's big states! No, it's popular votes! No, it's electoral votes!

Well, it's a few months late, but I finally found a new metric by which she would have unquestionably won.

On a Monopoly board, the combined value of the states that Hillary won (New York, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana & Pennsylvania) is $1140 -- far dwarfing the $920 value of Obama's holdings (Connecticut, Vermont, Virginia, Illinois & North Carolina).

The general election looks more favorable for Obama who is leading $980 to McCain's $400 with $680 (Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina) too close to call.

However, don't forget to add the cost of Barack Obama's 1 house on Illinois (cost $150) and John McCain's 1 house in Virginia (cost $100) and 7 houses on Boardwalk and Park Place (total cost $1400).

Buckeye Hillary

Good.

Hillary just held a private conference call with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and dozens of donors to her campaign and to Ohio Dems, urging them to plow funds into the coffers of the Ohio state party so it can help execute the ground game on Barack Obama's behalf, a Hillary aide confirms to me.

[...]

Hillary also promised extensive future visits to the state on Obama's behalf. "I will be back campaigning up and down the state to make the case that the failed leadership of the last eight years should not be rewarded with another four," she told the donors.

How McCain sees Obama

Apparently, the person playing Barack Obama in the mock debates with John McCain is none other than failed Senatorial candidate and Black Republican(tm) Michael Steele.

Lies (and the Lying McCain Staff That Tell Them)

Ha. The McCain staff calls out The New York Times for not calling them out for being liars.

Except that the McCain staff seemingly lies while doing it.

This election is close, why?

Sorry posting has been so slow

This weekend, my Obama team, 30 Barack, held 7 phonebanks, including the single largest phonebank in California on Saturday.

Suffice to say, this has been an incredibly hectic weekend, and I am sure it will grow even more busy as we close out the last 43 days before the election.

If You Like The Economy, You'll Love McCain's Health Care Plan

Obama keeps up the attack.

Al Franken Pinch-Hits

The best thing about last night's SNL skit skewering McCain?



It was written by former SNL alum turned Minnesota Senatorial candidate Al Franken.

Another Musical Ponderable

Istanbul (Not Constantinople) by They Might Be Giants.



(especially at 0:41)

and Puttin' On The Ritz by Irving "Taco" Berlin



(especially at 0:46)

Apple's Response

Apple should take a page from Shakespeare and mount a play-within-a-play:

PC stages his own (pathetic) little ad in an attempt to mock Mac, and ends up getting the tables turned on him. No?

Here come the endorsements

First up, The Seattle Times:

Obama should be the next president of the United States because he is the most qualified change agent. Obama is a little young, but also brilliant. If he sometimes seems brainy and professorial, that's OK. We need the leader of the free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results of shooting from the hip.

[...]

The Iraq war: Many Americans will cast their vote on this one issue alone. Past performance is the best indicator of future conduct. Obama opposed the war, McCain supported it full-bore. Obama has a plan for moving the troops out; McCain seeks "victory," whatever that actually means. The net effect will be more time and money wasted in a country that did not participate in 9/11.

[...]

On numerous other issues, from media consolidation to health care, Obama has the stronger take. He makes up for a thin résumé with integrity, judgment and fresh ideas. Obama can get America moving forward again.

Deregulate Health Care

John McCain wants to do for healthcare, what Phil Gramm did for banking.

Good luck with that, pal!

Palin is Change Floridians Can Believe In

Change in support from McCain to Obama that is.

Maybe hold off on that new camera?

Apparently the HD-Video features on the new DSLR's aren't so great yet...



That's from the new Nikon.

Obama Nails McCain to Fiorina, Gramm and Bush

These ads are getting better and tougher. I like seeing the Democrats playing offense.

Fake Sarah Palin

If you're not following FakeSarahPalin on Twitter, you really should start.

FakeSarahPalin I agree w/ John, it's time to fire the head of the SEC. COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS UNCOMPETITIVE & other regions deserve a chance!!

It just keeps getting better

Those new lame Microsoft ads that are going to replace the old lame Microsoft ads?

Made on a Mac.

Here is the monstrosity.

Wow.

Most defensive ad ever?

The SuperSystem Speaks -- Week 3

The SuperSystem -- with no knowledge of anything about football other than last year's records and a painstaking mathematical study of the NFL since 1988 -- makes the following predictions for Week 2:

ATLANTA over Kansas City
BUFFALO over Oakland
CHICAGO over Tampa Bay
TENNESSEE over Houston
MINNESOTA over Carolina
NEW ENGLAND over Miami
NY GIANTS over Cincinnati
WASHINGTON over Arizona
SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit
SEATTLE over St. Louis
DENVER over New Orleans
PHILADELPHIA over Pittsburgh
INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville
BALTIMORE over Cleveland
GREEN BAY over Dallas
SAN DIEGO over NY Jets

This week's suicide pick: New England
Biggest remaining mismatch: St. Louis at New England, week 8

Season to date: 19-13

The SuperSystem Spoke -- Week 2

I forgot to put this up last week, but these were the predictions.

The SuperSystem -- with no knowledge of anything about football other than last year's records and a painstaking mathematical study of the NFL since 1988 -- made the following predictions for Week 2:

CINCINNATI over Tennessee
GREEN BAY over Detroit
KANSAS CITY over Oakland
NY GIANTS over St. Louis
MINNESOTA over Indianapolis
WASHINGTON over New Orleans
CAROLINA over Chicago
SEATTLE over San Francisco
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo
TAMPA BAY over Atlanta
NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets
ARIZONA over Miami
DENVER over San Diego
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland
DALLAS over Philadelphia
OAKLAND over Denver

This week's suicide pick: Arizona
Biggest remaining mismatch: St. Louis at New England, week 8

Week 1 Perfomance: 9-7
Week 2 Perfomance: 10-6
Season to date: 19-13

Freud much?

John McCain says he puts "Country First."

Apparently Sarah Palin puts herself in front of John McCain:

Nagourney Gets Medieval on McCain

This is pretty brutal stuff:

These days, he sounds less like his old self than Bob Dole, another senator who ran for president in 1996, sounded in the closing days of his campaign — speaking louder or repeating statements that he thinks might be overlooked.

It makes you almost feel bad for---

Nah.

Mark, You Ignorant Slut

Let's recap, shall we?

1. Even after cramming for the test, Palin has no idea about the Bush Doctrine.
2. Tina makes moosemeat of Sarah.
3. Karl Rove calls McCain out for lying too much.
4. Joe Biden gives John McCain a new nickname.
5. McCellophane can't get anyone to notice him.
6. Palin's numbers go in the toilet.
   
7. McCain decides to go Full Hoover on the day Merril Lynch and Lehman Brothers fail.
8. Economic Advisor Holtz-Eakin claims that computer illiterate McCain pulled a MacGyver and invented the BlackBerry.
9. Economic Advisor Fiorina opines that neither candidate on her own ticket are qualified to run a company.
10. McCain unwittingly resorts to ethnic slurs.
11. McCain loses Richard Cohen.
12. McCain loses David Brooks.
    
13. McCain loses former biographer Elizabeth Drew.
14. Obama gets endorsed by the Republican former Governor of Virginia.
15. Obama gets endorsed by the Republican former Mayor of Los Angeles.
16. McCain gets battered by the Editorial Boards. And the AP.
17. Chuck Hagel goes on record laughing about foreign policy credentials via osmosis.
    
18. Obama raises a record $11 million -- in one night.
19. John McCain accidentally declares war on Spain.
20. One week ago, John McCain led in the national polls. Now--not so much.

So, please tell us, O Mark Halperin, who "won the week"?

Why, none other than John McCain, of course!

John McCain's Brain Fails Mainly Regarding Spain

By George he's lost it...

By George he's lost it!

And thus, the Senator finds himself in what appears to be an embarrassing if not potentially damaging proposition: either admit to confusing the name of the Spanish prime minister, a tough pill to swallow even with the built in perception that he is the candidate with foreign policy know-how, or explain away a position on U.S.-Spain relations that appears far outside the mainstream.

Perhaps, the animosity can be explained more easily: John is still remembering the Maine!

Rub Her Nose In It

This is awesome:

Click here and you can make a donation to Planned Parenthood--in Sarah Palin's name!

They will even send her a card (if you put down the McCain Campaign address.)

New Coke Redux

The Bill Gates-Jerry Seinfeld ads? Cancelled.

UPDATE:

Oh, Lord. The replacement sounds much, much, much worse.

Really, a John Hodgman lookalike?

The irony, of course, is that:

Hodgman : lame, cheap knock-off of Hodgman :: OS X : Windows.

Today's Political Ponderable

Is winning the Presidential election as simple as this:

The funnier candidate wins?

2004. Bush funnier than Kerry.
2000. Bush funnier than Gore (v. 2.000).
1996. Clinton funnier than Dole.
1992. Clinton funnier than Bush.
1988. No award given.
1984. Reagan funnier than Mondale.
1980. Reagan funnier than Carter.
1976. No award given.
1972. McGovern, least funny candidate in sixty years?
1968. Humphrey, second least funny candidate in sixty years?
1964. Johnson funnier than Goldwater.
1960. Kennedy funnier than Nixon.

Funny = "more human" = "more relatable."

Keep an eye on the zinger war.

How to Influence Seniors and Win Elections

It's really simple.

John McCain and George Bush wanted to privatize Social Security in 2005.

"Hey Seniors, how would your Social Security look if it was all in the market today?"

End of discussion.

One thing is for sure

Obama's zingers are getting better.



Burn.

The Canon 5D

The best trend in Digital SLR cameras is adding the ability to shoot 1080p High Def Video.

Leave John McCain Alone!

Apparently Sarah "Boom-Boom" Palin gets really indignant with Fair and Balanced(tm) "journalist" Sean Hannity about the Democrats being mean to John McCain for saying that the fundamentals of the economy were strong.

Initially, I think she was told to just point out that McCain was quoting President Hoover on the day after Black Tuesday, 1929 when he said the same thing. Apparently she declined because she didn't believe that a vacuum cleaner was ever President.

They are cheap. They are easy.

But I still love them:

John McCain Invented the Blackberry

Sarah Palin is your new Segway

The Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator

(Mine is "Spoon Archer Palin.")

Lady de Rothchild III, Esq., Inc., LLC

Something tells me that in a week where you are making one calamitous gaffe after another and the economy is going to hell in a handbasket, getting the endorsement of a former Hillary Clinton fundraiser, and billionairess isn't quite the get for John McCain right now.

byeCarly

Fiorina iced.

Why 2008 Matters

And now, a special comment by Greg Ostrander:

While I can appreciate that there are tactical reasons to run on the economy and the war, from where I sit there are far larger issues at stake in this election. There are certainly points on which I disagree with Obama, but he is a very smart man who cares about the large and serious issues that confront our country, and though he has not emphasized it recently, I believe he has the background to address one of the most pernicious legacies of the Bush administration.

One aspect of this election that gets lost in the shuffle as the campaign highlights the economic concerns facing our nation is the dramatic loss of our moral compass over the last eight years. Russia doesn't feel any need to listen to moral suasion from a country that engaged in torture in Iraq, "extraordinary rendition" throughout the world (an oblique way of saying kidnapping without judicial process with an end result of harsh interrogation if not torture), and a war based on trumped up claims of WMDs and links to 9/11. The economy is certainly important, but our nation was founded on principles that go beyond the current economic outlook, principles that have truly been endangered by the vast and arrogant expansion of Presidential power the current administration has engaged in.

Obama is a constitutional law expert, and has the fortitude to make hard choices without imperiling the constitutional goals that are the true source of the greatness of our country. McCain heralded a recent Supreme Court decision that granted rights to detainees as one of the worst in our history, a shocking interpretation of a decision that allows individuals against whom no charges have been brought to challenge their detention in federal court. This is one of the most fundamental aspects of the rule of law: that an executive authority does not have unilateral power to lock someone up and throw away the key without a check by another branch of government to confirm that such detention is appropriate. Bush has repeatedly attacked such rights as incompatible with his view of executive prerogative. McCain has now indicated a clear agreement with this approach, and whether through repeated arguments, by ignoring the Court, or by replacing a current liberal with a far right justice it is clear that he will continue this unprecedented attack on the very core of our constitutional system. We can't afford another 4 years where the basic elements of our system are under relentless attack. The price is too high.

I have been too sanguine regarding this election up until now. I just couldn't see how the people of this nation could stomach the ticket the Republicans have offered and the absolute failure of the Republicans to put forth any positive ideas regarding the challenges we face. We can't afford to be complacent any longer. There is still time before the election to make a real difference in the communities we live. The Obama campaign has done a remarkable job of building the organizational infrastructure necessary to make sure that your time and energies aren't wasted. Here is the link for the "neighbor to neighbor" page on Obama's website, but there are other ways of helping the campaign and I would encourage you to explore the website and get in touch with your local office to find a way to volunteer in a manner that fits your personality. If time is a luxury that you don't have enough of, I would encourage you to donate here which will provide for a doubling of your contribution if it is made prior to Friday. And if you want to get fired up about what Obama's candidacy means to this country, and all of the different types of people who are our fellow Americans, I would suggest you click here.

Regards,
Greg

Rove Protested at Claremont McKenna

For some inexplicable reason, Claremont McKenna invited Karl Rove to speak at their Athenaeum lecture series yesterday. Fortunately due in no small part to the adjacency of Pomona College, he was heckled before, during and after his speech.

Chirp.

Bait and Switch?

Why did Bill Clinton send out an email today decrying the slimy attacks of the Republicans, tell me how we need to all come together and get Barack Obama elected, and then offer to let me donate...

...to Hillary Clinton's campaign?

If McCain Ever Takes Questions Again

A reporter really needs to ask John McCain if he thinks it's a good thing that his economic advisor Carly Fiorina got a $42 million golden parachute from Hewlett-Packard in light of the 24,600 layoffs that Hewlett-Packard announced today.

Et tu, Carly?

A radio talk show host asks humor-deficient former HP CEO Carly Fiorina if Sarah Palin is qualified to be CEO of HP.

Carly's answer: no.

Mr. Cellophane

Dramatis Personae

Richard Gere as Rick Davis, John McCain's campaign manager
Renee Zellweger as Sarah Palin
John C. Reilly as John McCain

MoveOn Hits One out of the Park

I love this: it hits McCain twice, once politically and once personally--which I think is the secret of all effective attack ads. Politically, on his lobbyist pals/his puppeteers. Personally, on his mockable "my friends" tic--which even his own campaign can't stand to hear him use.

Barack 101

There are only a few more weeks of voter registration in most states.

That means, by the beginning of October, the entire universe of voters will be set. That's it. No more.

What this means is: once October begins, there are only two ways for Obama to increase his support:

1. Persuading undecided voters and converting wavering Republican voters.
2. Making sure that every single voter who supports Obama votes on election day.

As November draws closer, I'll talk more about about the way to make sure everyone votes. But for now, the focus has to be on persuasion.

The Obama campaign will be focused on persuasion through their advertising, debate performance and their attempts to control their message through the media. This is the effort that will be coming from the top, down to the people. This is what all of your donations are financing.

However, there is an even bigger and more important persuasion effort raging right now. Every single Obama supporter in the country is a surrogate for the campaign.

You are trying to convert your friends, or your sister-in-law in a swing state, or a friend at work that may be listening to a little too much conservative AM radio.

The only way this is going to work is if everyone contributes to this effort non-stop for the next 49 days.

The only way we are going to be effective surrogates for the campaign is if we can frame the issues effectively and confidently make the clear distinctions with John McCain and his policies.

The only way to do that is to be informed.


Welcome to Barack 101.

Every one of you has an assignment this week. Mandatory. No exceptions.

You must read this Daily Kos diary.

You can print it out and read it. But then you must read it online. And you must click on at least a few of the links.

Bookmark it. Go back to it. You don't have to cram Palin-style, but make yourself as familiar with the details as possible.

Your final exam will be November 4th.

The good news is that it's Pass/Fail.

The bad news is that it will not be offered again.

Your Move, John

After getting called out by his previous supporters in the real media, Fox News, Republican Senator Orrin Hatch and even Karl Rove himself, John McCain--already running against his own party who has been the incumbent power for the past 8 years--may have only one option left:

McCain must denounce the slimy tactics of his campaign and start running against himself.

Obama De-Defunds the 527s

And they go on the attack. (But they get two minutes for slashing.)

Muahahahahahahahaha

The incompetent former HP CEO and current McCain advisor Carly Fiorina takes the bait:

"I think of course [Tina Fey's] portrait was very dismissive of the substance of Sarah Palin,” Fiorina argued, calling it “totally superficial,” “disrespectful in the extreme,” and “sexist.”

Tina Fey 1, Republicans 0

Aww, Poor Baby...

Johnny McCain forgot to bring his shiny new bicycle to school today...and now no one wants to play with him.

Did Charlie and Tina Do Their Jobs?

Palin fading?

Kos:

Here are Sarah Palin's daily approval numbers from the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll:

[...]

In the span of five days, Palin has gone from +17 to +4 -- a statistically significant shift. This includes the Gibson interview as well as the media's sudden focus late last week on the Palin/McCain lies. In comparison, Biden is at 48/32/20, Obama is at 54/38/8, and McCain is at 51/45/4.

So Palin may not be the least popular of the four -- McCain is, but she is certainly the least liked of the four candidates, and given that both Obama and Biden are at +16 favorability, McCain's +6 and and Palin's +4 point to a fundamental weakness that will likely play a role moving forward.

Is Rasmussen Also Cooking the Polls?

How else can you explain this?

A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that while 31% of adults want CBS’s Two and a Half Men to win the Emmy for best comedy, only 27% think the show actually will win. Instead, 33% believe The Office will win that Emmy, even though slightly fewer adults (28%) want it to take home the coveted award.

Only 11% want last year’s winner for the best comedy series, 30 Rock, to be a repeat awardee.

Clearly Rasmussen oversamples mouth breathers.

Today's Classic Rock Ponderable

Are Bad Company's "Feel Like Making Love" and Crosby, Stills and Nash's "Southern Cross" exactly the same song?

If not, why not?

Your Family Reunion Will Suck

Sweet Johnny McCain's Cousin:

So, where is the straight-talking, commonsense John McCain of 2000? I'm afraid he is long gone, replaced by a desperate version of himself who seems to contradict nearly everything he once stood for.

What becomes apparent in his ideological about-face is just how out of touch McCain really is with America's working families.

In a time when the country is facing the worst housing crisis in the memory of most Americans, McCain couldn't even recall how many homes he owns. When asked how many homes my side of the family owns, I can answer you pretty quickly. Zero.

Cassius Obama

I think Obama has waited until the sheer weight of lies and smears hit a critical mass. Now he has complete license (and in fact, encouragement) from the press to hit McCain as hard as he wants to.

This is a good start:



This is, of course, essentially what he did in the primaries. Hillary hit and hit and hit and hit. Then the public decided she was running a crazy negative, slander-filled campaign. The net result was her favorables went down and Obama's went up--even when he counterpunched.

Obama did the same thing over the summer. McCain attacked, and attacked, and attacked, and attacked. Obama didn't seem to retaliate very effectively.

Until the convention.

With a litany of scurrilous McCain attacks having piled up (by the way, that's an ablative absolute, for those of you scoring at home), the rhetorical power of Obama's acceptance speech was greatly magnified in a way that would not have been possible had McCain's attacks been rebutted more fervently.

"Enough!" anyone?

It feels to me that Obama is repeating this strategy a third time. Yes, it's been muddied by the uncertainty on how to respond to Palin. But the facts are McCain has unloaded his cannons--hurt Obama, but permanently ruined his previously untouchable reputation with the refs. Obama has survived this onslaught and now is the sentimental favorite again--a role that he plays exceptionally well. When he seems wronged, his supporters rally, his fundraising spikes and his volunteer numbers swell.

If the Obama campaign has learned anything over the course of this brutal election cycle, it's that being the frontrunner kind of sucks. The pundits and the comedians turn against you. Your base gets complacent. You are a marked man.

In some ways, being the underdog in the polls (no matter how dubious) is the best thing that could happen to Obama coming into the first debate from a media narrative perspective. I think that David Plouffe, et al. are cool, calm and collected because they geniunely don't think the polls are that important--especially the daily tracking polls. I think they believe in the mathematical reality of the polity and the advantages they have in organization and field work.

As an aside, I think that there is a neat parallel between the 527 and the ground game. Obama is trying to quickly rectify his mistake in defunding the independent 527 organizations. McCain is trying to quickly rectify his lack of ground game deficit with his Palin-energized based. My sense is both of these efforts will come too late for both candidates to close the gap with the other. Both 527s and GOTV efforts require months and months of preparation, and while last minute infusions of energy and capital can help, with fifty days to go, as a great man once said, "time is a luxury you don't have."

Gallup's Wilful Deception

Remember when I said this?:

While McCain is definitely getting a bounce in the polls, pollsters seem to be--at the same time--increasing the number of Republicans that they poll and decreasing the number of Democrats.

Now weighting polls is standard operating procedure, but making this change, while McCain is getting his convention bounce is amplifying the magnitude of this bounce. What is less than clear is if this is a real effect, or artificial.

Yeah, it's pretty much confirmed:

In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:

1. At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.

2. Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.

3. Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.

4. In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.

Why John McCain = Microsoft

(this is not a compliment)

Daniel Eran:

Highlights:

• Pretending to play the role of an underdog outsider while actually being an authority with monopoly control.
• Appeals to uninformed audiences who don’t even realize that what they’re celebrating is not in their own best interests.
• Can’t function on the web.

The Anonymous Cartoonist Strikes

Delicious Irony

Skin cancer survivor John McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin installed a tanning bed in the Alaskan Governor's mansion.

“The governor did have a tanning bed put in the Governor’s Mansion,” Roger Wetherell, chief communications officer of Alaska’s Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, confirmed to this newspaper. “It was done shortly after she took office [in early 2007] and moved into the mansion.”

Seattle Sports Fans and Democrats

The top ten similarities:

1. You never seem to win in the playoffs (but you do really well during the regular season.)

2. You're accused of being too nice and lacking a killer instinct.

3. You suffer from extreme media bias against you.

4. The Superbowl XL refs were clearly working for the Ohio Secretary of State in 2004, and Katherine Harris in 2000.

5. You feel like your team is always playing not to lose.

6. Mike Holmgren runs on 3rd and 12 about as effectively as Democrats run attack ads.

7. Your biggest hero turns out to be kind of a douche.

8. The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth screw you over.

9. You hate your former players with a dark, eternal thirst for revenge that can never be slaked.

10. You've had your heart broken too many times.

America is likely to be eaten by a grue

Infocomphiles only, please.

Defining Palin

The three most important women in America standing between Sarah Palin and the old Naval Observatory.

1. Tina Fey
2. Gwen Ifill
3. (distant) Hillary Rodham Clinton