tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9405738.post3270082820861387952..comments2023-10-29T00:42:27.340-07:00Comments on Ablative Absolute: The Big LieSoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10684510078699756590noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9405738.post-7413029577343797502008-09-07T00:09:00.000-07:002008-09-07T00:09:00.000-07:00A rebuttal:Obviously there has been a tremendous i...A rebuttal:<BR/><BR/>Obviously there has been a tremendous influx of energy to the McCain ticket--while that energy was lacking it is still less than clear that, as some pundits have put it, getting your fans to clap louder will win you the election.<BR/><BR/>The question remains, how does Palin play with the independents. Clearly, given her ratings, they tuned into hear her speak. Whether or not her decidedly non-independent friendly polemic registered is not something we're going to be able to asses for sometime, anecdotal evidence--as well as a less than impressive tracking poll bounce for McCain hasn't been terribly encouraging.<BR/><BR/>As for the experience vs. change argument, don't forget that a.) it almost worked and that b.) John McCain, with 26 years of congressional experience is a more credible purveyor of that argument than 8 year vet HRC.<BR/><BR/>In citing George W. Bush, you are discounting the simple fact that some decidedly non-zero amount of the electorate voted for Bush in 2004 and are now opposed to his Presidency. Obviously they are not all defecting to the Democratic ticket, but at the same time, I would think it's hard to argue that wouldn't be as accepting of his credentials if he were running today. Also see: the decline of Republican self-identification.<BR/><BR/>I agree that waiting for a gaffe is a losing strategy. On the other hand, do not underestimate the effect that the first major gaffe (and not just in the debates) that Palin makes will have. The media is infuriated with the way they're being attacked and bullied by the McCain camp. When she screws up, they will pounce. Now that may not effect the die-hard conservatives (and in fact, will rally them to her cause), it will have an effect at the margins on the low-information voter as well as the independent/undecided.<BR/><BR/>As much as Palin is energizing her base, she is energizing and uniting the Democratic base as well. Let's see who grabs the middle first. (And yes, a fully committed HRC helps.)Soodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10684510078699756590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9405738.post-1467121806324868632008-09-06T11:37:00.000-07:002008-09-06T11:37:00.000-07:00why i still think the palin pick was not a disaste...why i still think the palin pick was not a disaster:<BR/><BR/>1. the smokescreen distraction reason you just outlined.<BR/><BR/>2. while it eliminates the experience argument, we saw how the "experience vs. change" contest played out in the primaries. it wasn't a winner.<BR/><BR/>3. their argument, if you can call it that, has become a cultural one: small town values vs. cosmopolitan elites. not fair, but i bet it will play well in rural ohio and pennsylvania.<BR/><BR/>4. with, say, pawlenty as the pick, half as many people would have watched the last two days of the republican convention, and half as many people would be subjected to hours of their propaganda.<BR/><BR/>5. with any other pick, other than KBH or snowe, biden and obama could come out swinging hard against the VP. there was already a built-in attack against romney that would easily stick. "operation ignore" means every news cycle about palin has a mccain camp quote supporting her and no counterbalance quote from the obama camp.<BR/><BR/>6. america elected and re-elected george w. bush. they will ignore how qualified the person is if they relate to them as a regular person. obama is hard to relate to, and is definitely not a regular person.<BR/><BR/>7. expecting a major gaffe is not a guarantee. the amount of times she'll answer direct hard questions will be minimal, and they're already making her memorize the pat 3-sentence answers for every foreign and domestic issue (like they did with bush) so in a debate when they ask about iran she can regurgitate the thought and exceed expectations.<BR/><BR/>8. never underestimate america's love for the idea of Mom President.<BR/><BR/>however, she infuriates democrats, and there are more democrats than republicans this year, so it probably will still end in them losing. but i don't buy that this pick was a disaster. <BR/><BR/>the only other side benefit i can see is that now nobody thinks hillary secretly wants obama to lose.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07026836453144830594noreply@blogger.com